Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Post-tropical Depression 7 (ex-vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220303185534.1218D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 18:55:33 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1646333737-112669-8792"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1646333737-112669-8792
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 031829
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/7/20212022
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.9 S / 81.0 E
(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 575 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/04 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 465 SW: 295 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 155

24H: 2022/03/04 18 UTC: 30.0 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 465 SW: 315 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 165

36H: 2022/03/05 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 425 SW: 350 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 155

48H: 2022/03/05 18 UTC: 32.1 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 455 SW: 295 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 165

60H: 2022/03/06 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 455 SW: 285 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 195 NW: 165

72H: 2022/03/06 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 370 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/07 18 UTC: 36.9 S / 83.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 325 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 130 NW: 95


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS LARGELY COLLAPSED
WITHIN THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. CONSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IF THE INTENSITY OF 50 KT AT 12Z IS
VALIDATED BY THE SMOS PASS OF 1207Z AT 54 KT, IT IS PROBABLE THAT
SINCE THEN THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED IN RELATION WITH THE COLLAPSE OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BUOY 1601649 HAS JUST PENETRATED BETWEEN 17Z
AND 18Z WITHIN THE RATHER LARGE CENTRAL ZONE AND GIVES A PRESSURE AT
18Z OF 988.7 HPA (CORRECTED FOR THE BAROMETRIC TIDE), WHICH ALLOWS TO
ESTIMATE WITH A GOOD DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE A CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND
987 HPA.

EX-VERNON CONTINUES ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY, GUIDED BY
THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WILL INTERCEPT EX-VERNON. THE TRACK
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD, SLOWING DOWN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TEMPORARILY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS)
BEFORE ACCELERATING WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION UNTIL
SATURDAY. EX-VERNON SHOULD NEVERTHELESS WEAKEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.=

------------=_1646333737-112669-8792
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1646333737-112669-8792--