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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N:        Dems-rsmc Special Tropical Cyclones New Delhi Dated 03.03.2022 
Message-ID: <20220303204040.7280A1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 20:40:40 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 032038
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
       DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 03.03.2022
       SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE
BAY OF
       BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT
2100 UTC OF
       03.03.2022 BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 03.03.2022.
       DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING
EQUATORIAL INDIAN
       OCEAN
                THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTH-
       NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 13 KMPH DURING LAST 06
HOURS
       AND LAY CENTERED AT 1800 UTC OF YESTERDAY, THE 3RD MARCH 2022,
OVER THE
       SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE 7.8ON AND LONGITUDE 83.1OE, ABOUT
220 KM EAST-
       SOUTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418), 490 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
       NAGAPPATTINAM (43347), 590 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY
(43331)
       AND ABOUT 650 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279).
              IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION DURING NEXT
       12 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG AND OFF
EAST
       COAST OF SRI LANKA TOWARDS NORT H TAMIL NADU COAST DURING NEXT
48
       HOURS.
       FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
          DATE/TIME(UTC)              POSITION       MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED                    CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
                                       (LAT. 0N/             SURFACE
DISTURBANCE
                                      LONG. 0E)       WIND SPEED
(KMPH)
            03.03.22/1800               7.8/83.1      45-55 GUSTING
TO 65                          DEPRESSION
            04.03.22/0600               9.3/82.7      50-60 GUSTING
TO 70                      DEEP DEPRESSION
            04.03.22/1800              10.5/82.0      50-60 GUSTING
TO 70                      DEEP DEPRESSION
            05.03.22/0600              11.6/81.4      45-55 GUSTING
TO 65                          DEPRESSION
            05.03.22/1800              12.4/81.0      40-50 GUSTING
TO 60                          DEPRESSION
       THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED
CLOUDS WITH
       EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BET
LAT 7.0DEG N &
       14.0 DEG N AND LONG 82.0 DEG E TO 88.0E & SRILANKA. MINIMUM
CLOUD TOP
       TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 90 DEG C. CONVECTION IS MORE IN THE
NORTHERN SECTOR OF
       THE SYSTEM.
       THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 35 KNOTS.
       THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL &
       ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004
       HPA.
THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER
COUNTRIES,. PLEASE VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY
SPECIFIC BULLETINS
REMARKS:
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WESTCENTRAL BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80
KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY
LIES IN PHASE 5 W ITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
IN THE
SAME PHASE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING LESS THAN
1.
THE PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION DURING NEXT 2-
3 DAYS.
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 100 X10-6 S-1 AND LIES AROUND THE
SYSTEM
CENTRE. VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 30 X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS INCREASED AND IS AROUND 40 X10-5 S-1 TO
THE
NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. WIND SHEAR HAS REDUCED BUT IS STILL
MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND W OULD
INCREASE TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, ECMWF, GEFS, NCUM
(G),
IMDMME, NCUM (R) AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE INDICATING SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS
ARE UNANIMOUS W.R.T. MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST DURING
NEXT 48 HOURS.
IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER
SOUTHWEST BOB IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY MARGINALLY DURING NEXT 24 HOURS
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS OFF EAST COAST OF
SRILANKA TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST.
 THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 04TH MARCH, 2022.=

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