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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220303210935.4C6151C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 3 Mar 2022 21:09:35 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 032109
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Mar 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia 
near 08N77W to 05N85W to 05N94W to 02N101W to 02N110W, where 
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the 
ITCZ and continues to 04N120W to 07N129W to 07N135W and to 
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from the 
equator north to 06N between 81W-85W, and within 60 nm north of 
the trough between 95W-99W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The earlier strong to near gale-force north winds that were 
noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished to fresh speeds 
per the latest ASCAT pass. A recent altimeter data pass shows
lower wave heights than earlier seen in the Gulf. They are 
in the range of 5-7 ft, except for lower wave heights of 3-4 ft
near the coast of Tehuantepec. Relatively weak high pressure
is allowing for rather gentle winds over the rest of the area.
Wave heights of 5-7 ft range due to a northwest swell are over 
the Baja California offshore waters and SW Mexico, except for 
higher wave heights of up to 8 ft offshore of Baja California 
Norte due to a reinforcing northwest swell there. Wave heights 
of 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California, except for higher 
wave heights of 4-6 ft in the entrance to the Gulf.

For the forecast, the fresh north winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will increase to fresh to strong speeds late tonight
and continue through Fri night, before becoming light and 
variable Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds will 
prevail through this morning. A new set of northwest swell will 
continue to move across the waters west of Baja California, up to
8 ft from Punta Eugenia northward through today. Fresh to strong
northwest to north winds will develop west of Baja California by
Fri night and persist through the weekend behind the dying cold 
front. This front will usher in northwest swell, with wave 
heights building to 10-14 ft west of Baja California by late Fri.
Wave heights of 8-10 ft will build southward, off Baja 
California Sur on Sat. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds 
are expected in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the 
front tonight through Fri night, then diminish to fresh speeds 
early Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo,
with wave heights of up to 7 ft. Moderate north winds are in the
Gulf of Panama, with wave heights of 3-5 ft. Mainly light to 
gentle winds are noted elsewhere, along with wave heights of 3-5 
ft due to a south to southwest swell, with the exception of wave 
heights of up to 6 ft offshore of Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to 
pulse each night across the Papagayo region through early Sat, 
then moderate to fresh thereafter. Winds in the Gulf of Panama 
will pulse moderate to fresh, mainly at night through Fri night. 
Gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas will build slightly 
offshore of Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the end of 
the week due to a southwest swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A cold front is analyzed along a position from near 30N124W to 
26N130W and to beyond 25N140W. Fresh to strong northwest to 
north winds are behind the front. These winds extend westward to 
135W, then become northeast to east in direction west of 135W. 
Wave heights with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. A set of 
northwest swell associated with this frontal system has 
propagated well southeast of the parent front producing wave 
heights of 6-8 ft north of 14N west of about 129W. Wave heights 
of 5-7 ft are elsewhere over the area. Broad high pressure is 
located east of the front to near the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Gentle to moderate winds dominate the open waters ahead of the 
front.

For the forecast, The cold front will reach from near 30N122W to
24N135W by early this evening, and from near 30N118W to 22N130W
by early Fri. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are 
forecast to continue behind the front, along with the northwest 
swell and wave heights of 8-12 ft except for higher wave heights 
of 11-15 ft north of 28N. A warm front associated with low 
pressure west of the area is forecast to extend into the area 
along a position from 27N140W to near 26N136W by late tonight. 
Fresh to strong southeast winds are forecast north of 24N 
west of 138W along with wave heights of 8-11 ft late tonight, 
and to the north of 22N west of 138W by Sat afternoon.

$$
Aguirre


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