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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Post-tropical Depression 7 (ex-vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220304005316.36D251C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 00:53:16 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 040027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/7/20212022
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.0 S / 80.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 555 SW: 315 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/04 12 UTC: 29.6 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 445 SW: 295 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 165

24H: 2022/03/05 00 UTC: 30.9 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SW: 325 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 165

36H: 2022/03/05 12 UTC: 32.1 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 455 SW: 325 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 150

48H: 2022/03/06 00 UTC: 33.2 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SW: 305 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 140

60H: 2022/03/06 12 UTC: 34.8 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 405 SW: 230 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 155

72H: 2022/03/07 00 UTC: 35.8 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 360 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE NIGHT, THE CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AND REMAINS
TYPICAL OF A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION: EXPOSED CENTER, RATHER WIDE
CENTRAL ZONE, RESIDUAL CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE UNDER
THE EFFECT OF A SHEAR OF ALMOST 30 KT ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER
LEVELS TROUGH. IN THE ABSENCE OF OBJECTIVE DATA AND IN VIEW OF THE OF
THE STEADY CLOUD PATTERN, THE INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATED AT 45 KT.
BUOY 1601649 MEASURED AT 20 UTC A MINIMUM PRESSURE CORRECTED FOR THE
BAROMETRIC TIDE OF 987.8 HPA WHILE IT WAS LOCATED IN THE IMMEDIATE
WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER (WITH AMSR2 OF 2014Z).

EX-VERNON CONTINUES ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, GUIDED BY THE
HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WILL INTERCEPT EX-VERNON. THE TRACK
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD, SLOWING DOWN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS (TEMPORARILY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS).

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITHIN A BROAD
UPPER LEVELS TROUGH WITH A SUCCESSION OF SHORTER WAVELENGTH TROUGH,
SHOULD MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION THROUGH SATURDAY.
EX-VERNON SHOULD THEN WEAKEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE BROAD UPPER LEVELS TROUGH EVACUATES EASTWARD.=

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