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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/tropical Cyclone 18p (eighteen) Warning Nr 005// 
Message-ID: <20220304015956.A91181C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 01:59:56 +0000
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WTPS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z --- NEAR 25.5S 174.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 174.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 25.3S 173.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 25.3S 172.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 174.1E.
04MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
489 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND CIRRI CANOPY STRETCHED AND
SHEARED EASTWARD, PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
AND STREAKS OF COLD-AIR STRATUS BANDS THAT ARE FEEDING INTO LLC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTLY
EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED
ON THE PGTW AND ADT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS AND FROM RECENT
ASCAT PASSES SHOWING 35-KT BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS AND
100+NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST OFFSET BY
STRONG (30KT+) VWS AND THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AS
EVIDENCED BY THE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS BANDS IN THE MSI LOOP. A
CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES THAT TC 18P HAS TRANSITIONED
INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS SUCH AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SHALLOW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND
PERSISTENT COLD DRY AIR INFLUX, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24,
LIKELY SOONER. THIS IS THE FINAL  WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 040000Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN


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