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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-N: 
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Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 03:33:25 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 040300
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 04.03.2022

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0300 UTC
 OF 04.03.2022 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 04.03.2022.

DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING EQUATORIAL
INDIAN OCEAN

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
S WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 13 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED
 AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 04TH MARCH 2022, OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR
 LATITUDE 8.5ON AND LONGITUDE 83.0OE, ABOUT 190 KM EAST OF
TRINCOMALEE
(43418), 430 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPPATTINAM (43347), 520 KM
SOUTHEAST
OF PUDUCHERRY (43331) AND ABOUT 580 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI
(43279).
IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT
 12 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ALONG AND OFF
EAST
 COAST OF SRI LANKA  TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST DURING NEXT 48
HOURS.


FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
 DATE/TIME(UTC)  POSITION    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED     CATEGORY OF
CYCLONIC
                  (LAT. 0N/        SURFACE              DISTURBANCE
                 LONG. 0E)   WIND SPEED (KMPH)
   04.03.22/0000   8.5/83.0  45-55 GUSTING TO 65        DEPRESSION
   04.03.22/1200   9.9/82.5  50-60 GUSTING TO 70     DEEP DEPRESSION
   05.03.22/0000  10.5/82.1  50-60 GUSTING TO 70     DEEP DEPRESSION
   05.03.22/1200  10.9/81.6  50-60 GUSTING TO 70     DEEP DEPRESSION
   06.03.22/0000  11.3/81.0  40-50 GUSTING TO 60        DEPRESSION

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5.  ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED
CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BET
LAT
 6.5O N & 14.5O N AND LONG 81.5OE TO 88.5OE & SRILANKA. MINIMUM CLOUD
 TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 90 DEG C. CONVECTION IS MORE IN THE
NORTHERN
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO
35 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST
BAY OF BENGAL & ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN. THE ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA.

REMARKS:

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WESTCENTRAL BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80
 KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO)
CURRENTLY LIES IN PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE IN THE SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE
REMAINING LESS THAN 1. THE PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED
CONVECTION DURING NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 100 X10-6 S-1 AND LIES AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 20 X10-5 S-1  OVER THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS DECREASED AND IS AROUND 20 X10-5
S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO
HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND INCREASES TOWARDS
TAMILNADU COAST.

A BUOY LOCATED AT 13.3ON/83.9OE HAS WIND DIRECTION/SPEED 70O/19KTS,
 MSLP 1010 HPA AND SST 27.5OC. A SHIP LOCATED AT 5.3ON/84.5OE HAS
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED 230O/19KTS, MSLP 1007 HPA AND SST 28.6OC.

MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, ECMWF, GEFS,
NCUM (G), IMDMME, NCUM (R) AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE INDICATING SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS
ARE UNANIMOUS IN MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST
 DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER
SOUTHWEST BOB IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY MARGINALLY DURING NEXT 12 HOURS
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS OFF EAST COAST OF
SRILANKA TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST

 THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY,
THE 04TH MARCH, 2022.=

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