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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220304045551.24BDE1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 04:55:51 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04MAR22 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EVA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 25.5S 174.2E, APPROXIMATELY 489 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA,
NEW CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 040300) FOR
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
25.6S 172.5E, APPROXIMATELY 307 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TONGA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL 040220Z
GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THERE IS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-
28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE, CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD , AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48-72HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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