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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Post-tropical Depression 7 (ex-vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220304061421.163E31C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 06:14:20 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 040611
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/7/20212022
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.2 S / 80.0 E
(TWENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/04 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SW: 315 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 175

24H: 2022/03/05 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 380 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 175 NW: 140

36H: 2022/03/05 18 UTC: 32.3 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 130

48H: 2022/03/06 06 UTC: 34.0 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 360 SW: 280 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 155

60H: 2022/03/06 18 UTC: 35.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 165 NW: 165

72H: 2022/03/07 06 UTC: 36.8 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EX-VERNON HAS NOT
CHANGED AND REMAINS TYPICAL OF A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION: EXPOSED
CENTER, RATHER WIDE CENTRAL ZONE, RESIDUAL CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE UNDER THE EFFECT OF A SHEAR OF ALMOST 30 KT ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE 0326UTC ASCAT SWATH ALLOWS TO DEFINE
WINDS OF 45KT IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE, LIMITED TO 35KT IN THE NORTH
SEMICIRCLE. THE FAIRLY ACCURATE LOCATION STILL ALLOWS TO MAINTAIN A
SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST TRACK.

LITTLE CHANGE FOR EX-VERNON WHICH CONTINUES ON A GENERAL SOUTHBOUND
TRACK. THE TRACK IS GUIDED BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL OF THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHY TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKENING, LEAVING A GROWING PART OF THE SYSTEM TO CONTRADICTORY
FLOWS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST, LOCATED AT LOWER LEVELS. IN
THESE CONDITIONS, EX-VERNON SLOWS DOWN ITS TRACK AT THE END OF
SATURDAY TO TURN MORE STRONGLY SOUTHWARD. AT THE END OF THE DAY,
UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE DYNAMICS FURTHER SOUTH, EX-VERNON WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CAUGHT IN THE TEMPERATE LATITUDES FLOW.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITHIN A BROAD
UPPER LEVELS TROUGH WITH A SUCCESSION OF SHORTER WAVELENGTH TROUGH,
SHOULD MAINTAIN WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 45KT WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
THROUGH SATURDAY. EX-VERNON SHOULD THEN WEAKEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH EVACUATES EASTWARD, CONTINUING
ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

THERE ARE NO EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON LAND.=

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