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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-N: 
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Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 06:38:43 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 040630
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 04.03.2022

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC
OF 04.03.2022 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 04.03.2022.

DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
S WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 15 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED
AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 4TH MARCH 2022, OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR
LATITUDE 8.9ON AND LONGITUDE 82.9OE, ABOUT 180 KM EAST OF TRINCOMALEE
(43418), 390 KM SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPPATTINAM (43347), 470 KM SOUTHEAST
OF PUDUCHERRY (43331) AND ABOUT 530 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI
(43279).
IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT
 12 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS OFF EAST COAST
OF SRI LANKA TILL 5TH MARCH MORNING AND THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
 TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST DURING SUBSEQUENT 48 HOURS.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
 DATE/TIME(UTC)  POSITION    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED     CATEGORY OF
CYCLONIC
                  (LAT. 0N/        SURFACE              DISTURBANCE
                 LONG. 0E)   WIND SPEED (KMPH)
   04.03.22/0300   8.9/82.9    45-55 GUSTING TO 65        DEPRESSION
   04.03.22/1200  10.1/82.4    50-60 GUSTING TO 70     DEEP
DEPRESSION
   05.03.22/0000  10.6/82.1    50-60 GUSTING TO 70     DEEP
DEPRESSION
   05.03.22/1200  10.9/81.8    50-60 GUSTING TO 70     DEEP
DEPRESSION
   06.03.22/0530  11.1/81.3    40-50 GUSTING TO 60        DEPRESSION


THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5.  ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER
AREA BET LAT 6.5O N & 15.0O N AND LONG 80OE TO 88.5OE & SRILANKA.
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 82 DEG C.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO
35 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST
BAY OF BENGAL & ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN. THE ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA.

REMARKS:

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WESTCENTRAL BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80
KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY
LIES IN
PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE
SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING LESS THAN 1.
THE PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION DURING NEXT
2-3 DAYS.

LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 150 X10-6 S-1 AND LIES AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 10 X10-5 S-1  OVER THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS DECREASED AND IS AROUND 20 X10-5 S-1 TO
THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH
(15-25 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND INCREASES TOWARDS
TAMILNADU COAST.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG LAT 13DEGN, NORTH TO THE SYSTEM
AREA. HENCE  EAST SOUTH-EASTERLY WINDS PERSISTS OVER THE SYSTEM
REGION. ASCAT WINDS SUGGEST 25-30 KTS WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR
OF THE DEPRESSION.

MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, ECMWF, GEFS, NCUM
(G), IMDMME, NCUM (R) AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE INDICATING SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS
ARE UNANIMOUS IN MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU
COAST DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.
IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER
SOUTHWEST BOB IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY MARGINALLY DURING NEXT 12 HOURS
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS OFF EAST COAST OF
SRILANKA TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.

 THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 04TH
MARCH, 2022.=

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