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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Bengal And Arabian Sea) Valid For Next 120 Hours Issued At 0900 Utc Of 
Message-ID: <20220304091058.6A6311C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 09:10:58 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 040910
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF
04.03.2022 BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 04.03.2022.
DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 15 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS AND LAY
CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 4TH MARCH 2022, OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR
LATITUDE 9.2°N AND LONGITUDE 82.8°E, ABOUT 180 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
TRINCOMALEE (43418), 370KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPPATTINAM (43347), 440 KM
SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY (43331) AND ABOUT 500 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI (43279).
IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.
IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS OFF EAST COAST OF SRI LANKA TILL 5TH
MARCH MORNING AND THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL
NADU COAST DURING SUBSEQUENT 48 HOURS.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
DATE/TIME(UTC)    Forecast       POSITION         MAXIMUM SUSTAINED CATEGORY OF
                 Lead Period  (LAT.0N/LONG.0E)     SURFACEWIND 
                                                   SPEED (KMPH)       CYCLONIC
                                                                      DISTURBANCE
04.03.22/0600      00         9.2 /82.8        45-55 gusting to 65    Depression
04.03.22/1800      12         10.1/82.4        50-60 gusting to 70    Deep Depression
05.03.22/0600      24         10.7/82.0        50-60 gusting to 70    Deep Depression
05.03.22/1800      36         11.0/81.5        45-55 gusting to 65    Depression
06.03.22/0000      48         11.1/81.0        40-50 gusting to 60    Depression
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BET LAT 6.0° N &
16.5° N AND LONG 80°E TO 88.5°E & SRILANKA. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS
MINUS 82 DEG C.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS.
THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND
ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004
HPA.
Page 2
This is a guidance Bulletin for the WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries,. Please visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
REMARKS:
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-29
0
C OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WESTCENTRAL BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80
KJ/CM
2
OVER THE SAME REGION. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY
LIES IN PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE
SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING LESS THAN 1. THE
PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION DURING NEXT 2-3
DAYS.
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 200 X10
-6
S
-1
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
AROUND 20 X10
-5
S
-1
OVER THE SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS
IS ABOUT 30 X10
-5
S
-1
TO THE NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. WIND SHEAR IS
MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND
INCREASES WESTWARDS TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG LAT 13DEGN TO THE NORTH OF
SYSTEM AREA. HENCE, EAST SOUTH-EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST OVER THE
SYSTEM REGION. ASCAT WINDS SUGGEST 25-30 KTS WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
SECTOR OF THE DEPRESSION.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, ECMWF, GEFS, NCUM (G),
IMD MME, NCUM (R) AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE INDICATING SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS
ARE UNANIMOUS IN MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU
COAST DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.
IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER
SOUTHWEST BOB IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY MARGINALLY DURING NEXT 12 HOURS
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS OFF EAST COAST OF
SRILANKA TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 04TH MARCH,2022

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