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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (invest 90b)// 
Message-ID: <20220304092646.884031C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 09:26:46 +0000
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WTIO21 PGTW 040930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.2N 83.2E TO 10.0N 81.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 83.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 83.1E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 040051Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THERE ARE DEEP POCKETS OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY TO THE
IMMEDIATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVLEOPMENT TO INCLUDE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-
15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY
AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA OVER THE
NEXT 24-48HRS.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THEPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050930Z.
//
NNNN


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