Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Post-tropical Depression 7 (ex-vernon) 
Message-ID: <20220304121531.584FD1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 12:15:31 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1646396138-112669-8961"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1646396138-112669-8961
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 041214
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/7/20212022
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-VERNON)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.3 S / 79.7 E
(TWENTY NINE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/05 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 335 SW: 360 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 140

24H: 2022/03/05 12 UTC: 31.7 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 305 SW: 350 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 100

36H: 2022/03/06 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 400 SW: 315 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 75

48H: 2022/03/06 12 UTC: 34.8 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SW: 315 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 130

60H: 2022/03/07 00 UTC: 36.2 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 150

72H: 2022/03/07 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 85 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
EX-VERNON IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT AND LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, REMAINING TYPICAL OF A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NO NEW
INFORMATION ALLOWING TO ESTIMATE PRECISELY THE WINDS THAT CAN BE
MAINTAINED AT 45KT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, THE RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA SHOWING LITTLE EVOLUTION IN THE LOW LAYER STRUCTURE.

NO CHANGE FOR EX-VERNON WHICH CONTINUES ON A GENERAL SOUTHBOUND
TRACK. THE TRACK IS GUIDED BY THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL OF THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHY TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKENING, LEAVING A GROWING PART OF THE SYSTEM TO CONTRADICTORY
FLOWS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST, LOCATED AT LOWER LEVELS. IN
THESE CONDITIONS, EX-VERNON SLOWS DOWN ITS TRACK AT THE END OF
SATURDAY TO TURN MORE STRONGLY SOUTHWARD. AT THE END OF THE DAY,
UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE DYNAMICS FURTHER SOUTH, EX-VERNON WILL
CONTINUE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CAUGHT IN THE FLOW OF
TEMPERATE LATITUDES.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITHIN A BROAD
UPPER LEVELS TROUGH WITH A SUCCESSION OF SHORTER WAVELENGTH TROUGH,
SHOULD MAINTAIN WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 45KT WITHIN THE CIRCULATION
THROUGH SATURDAY. EX-VERNON SHOULD THEN WEAKEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH EVACUATES EASTWARD, CONTINUING
ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.

THERE ARE NO EXPECTED IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON LAND.

THIS WARNING IS THE LAST ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.=

------------=_1646396138-112669-8961
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1646396138-112669-8961--