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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 12:20:55 +0000
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479 
AWIO20 FMEE 041218

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/03/04 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warnings WTIO22 025/07 and WTIO30 025/07 issued at 06UTC on post-tropical depression EX-VERNON.

Next warnings at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The monsoon flow is established over the whole width of the basin and feeds a monsoon trough (MT) undulating between 12 and 18S. Post-tropical depression EX-VERNON has broken off the MT and is now moving away from the tropics towards the mid-latitudes in the far south-east of the basin. Most of the basin's significant convective activity is spread along the northern edge of the MT. A weak vortex is embedded within the eastern part of the MT near 13S/78E. Because of lack of convergence and a dry environment it doesn't have any development potential in the coming days. On the western part of the MT, a broad low pressure area is building north of the Mascarene archipelago and east of Madagascar and will need to be monitored in the coming days (see details below).

Post-tropical depression EX-VERNON :

Position at 09UTC : 28.7oS / 79.8oE

Movement : South-South-West 12 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes : 45 kt

Estimated central pressure : 989 hPa
For more information on this system, refer to bulletins WTIO22 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

North of the Mascarene Islands and east of Madagascar :

By this week-end, under the impulse of marked equatorial wave activity (MRG wave), a monsoon flow surge should build over the western part of the basin, while strengthening of the trade winds on the subtropical side of the MT is expected. This should allow increased vorticity and help a low to develop between Saturday and Sunday near Tromelin island. Models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario but diverge quite rapidly beyond that. Indeed, the US model suggests rather rapid deepening, reaching tropical storm stage around Monday, with a slow southward movement towards Reunion island or Mauritius. The European model is slower to develop, favoring a west-to-southwestward track towards Madagascar, some ensemble members even prolonging the track into the Mozambique channel. Overall environmental conditions are conducive, providing sufficient low-level convergence, tropospheric moisture and excellent upper divergence. SSTs are less conducive since several previous tropical
  systems
  have tracked through this area. There is a medium risk of tropical storm formation, but with a high uncertainty about the timing of development and the storm track.

It is still too early to properly assess the level of threat for inhabited lands. At least, disturbed weather conditions are to be expected next week over Madagascar and/or the Mascarene Islands. It is therefore advised to stay updated on the forecast.

The risk of development of a new tropical storm becomes low from Sunday and moderate from Tuesday north of the Mascarene Islands and east of Madagascar.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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