Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre-tropical Cyclones, New 
Message-ID: <20220304150833.6B2871C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 15:08:33 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1646406520-112669-8982"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1646406520-112669-8982
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIN20 DEMS 041507

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW
DELHI

               TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 04.03.2022

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF

BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1430 UTC
OF

04.03.2022 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 04.03.2022.

DEPRESSION INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS

WITH THE SPEED OF ABOUT 15 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED
INTO A DEEP

DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 4TH MARCH 2022,
OVER

THE SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE 10.0ON AND LONGITUDE 82.7OE, ABOUT 220
KM

NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418), 320 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
NAGAPATTINAM

(43347), 380 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY (43331), 420 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST

OF CHENNAI (43279).

IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS OFF EAST COAST OF SRI LANKA TILL
00 UTC OF

5TH MARCH AND THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU

COAST DURING SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

DATE/TIME(UTC) FORECAST     POSITION       MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
CATEGORY OF
               LEAD PERIOD  (LAT.0N/LONG.0E) SURFACE WIND SPEED
CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE
                            (KMPH)

04.03.22/1200   00       10.0/82.7       50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEEP
DEPRESSION
05.03.22/0000   12       10.6/82.4       55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP
DEPRESSION
05.03.22/1200   24       10.9/81.9       55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP
DEPRESSION
06.03.22/0000   36       11.0/81.5       50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEEP
DEPRESSION
06.03.22/1200   48       11.0/81.1       45-55 GUSTING TO 65
DEPRESSION

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED CLOUDS
WITH
EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BET LAT
6.0O N &
16.5O N AND LONG 80OE TO 88.5OE & SRILANKA. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE IS
MINUS 93 DEG C.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS.
THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING
WESTCENTRAL
BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.

THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER
COUNTRIES,. PLEASE VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY
SPECIFIC BULLETINS
REMARKS:
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-29OC OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WESTCENTRAL BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80
KJ/CM
2
OVER THE SAME REGION. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY
LIES IN PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
IN THE
SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING LESS THAN 1.
THE
PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION DURING NEXT 2-3
DAYS.
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 150 X10
-6
S
-1
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 20 X10
-5
S
-1
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS IS ABOUT 30 X10
-5
S
-1
TO THE NORTHEAST OF
SYSTEM CENTRE. WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH (10-20 KNOTS) AROUND
THE
SYSTEM CENTRE AND INCREASES WESTWARDS TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG LAT 13 DEG NORTH TO THE NORTH OF
SYSTEM AREA. HENCE, EAST SOUTH-EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST OVER THE
SYSTEM REGION.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 36 HOURS AND
ALTOUGH NO CONCENSUS ABOUT THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE DEEP DEPRESSION
OVER
SOUTHWEST BOB IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS OFF EAST COAST OF
SRILANKA TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 36 HOURS.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF TODAY, THE 04TH
MARCH,2022.=

------------=_1646406520-112669-8982
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1646406520-112669-8982--