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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Intensified Into A Deep Depression And Lay Centered At 1730 Hrs 
Message-ID: <20220304155036.D564A1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 15:50:36 +0000
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WWIN40 DEMS 041200

IWB (EVENING) DATED 04-03-2022


METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS:

 THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NEARLY
NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 15 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS,
INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTERED AT 1730 HRS
IST OF TODAY, THE 4TH MARCH 2022, OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR
LATITUDE 10.0ON AND LONGITUDE 82.7OE, ABOUT 220 KM NORTHEAST
OF TRINCOMALEE (SRI LANKA), 320 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPPATTINAM
(TAMIL NADU), 380 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY (TAMIL NADU) AND
ABOUT 420 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (TAMIL NADU). IT IS LIKELY
TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS OFF EAST COAST OF SRI LANKA TILL 05TH MARCH
MORNING AND THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU
COAST DURING SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS.

 THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE AS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER JAMMU
& NEIGHBORHOOD PERSISTS AND SEEN AT 3.1 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL.
HOWEVER THE TROUGH ALOFT IN MIDDLE & UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES
WITH ITS AXIS AT 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL NOW RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG
LONG.79OE TO THE NORTH OF LAT.28ON.

 THE INDUCED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST RAJASTHAN
& NEIGHBOURHOOD EXTENDING UPTO 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL
PERSISTS.

 THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH BANGLADESH & NEIGHBOURHOOD
AT 1.5 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL PERSISTS.

 TWO FRESH WESTERN DISTURBANCES LIKELY TO AFFECT NORTHWEST INDIA,
THE 1ST FROM THE NIGHT 05TH AND 2ND FROM THE NIGHT OF 08TH
MARCH, 2022.

RAINFALL FORECAST:-

RAINFALL/SNOWFALL: AT A FEW PLACES OVER
JAMMU-KASHMIR-LADAKH-GILGIT-BALTISTAN-MUZAFFARABAD, HIMACHAL
PRADESH AND UTTARAKHAND.

RAINFALL/THUNDERSHOWERS: AT A FEW PLACES OVER TAMIL
NADU-PUDUCHERRY-KARAIKAL AND AT ISOLATED PLACES OVER EAST MADHYA
PRADESH, VIDARBHA, SUB-HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM, ANDAMAN
& NICOBAR ISLANDS, ARUNACHAL PRADESH, ASSAM & MEGHALAYA,
NAGALAND-MANIPUR-MIZORAM-TRIPURA, COSTAL ANDHRA PRADESH-YANAM,
RAYALASEEMA AND KERALA & MAHE (.)

DRY OVER REST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY (.)


WEATHER WARNINGS:-

04 MARCH (DAY 1):  THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING AT
ISOLATED PLACES VERY LIKELY OVER UTTARAKHAND, CENTRAL & WEST
ASSAM-MEGHALAYA, NAGALAND-MANIPUR, COASTAL TAMIL
NADU-PUDUCHERRY-KARAIKAL, VIDARBHA, SOUTH MADHYA PRADESH AND SOUTH
COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH.

 SQUALLY WINDS SPEED REACHING 50-60 KMPH GUSTING TO 70 KMPH VERY
LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, GULF
OF MANNAR AND ALONG & OFF NORTH TAMIL NADU, PUDUCHERRY & SOUTH
ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS TILL 4TH MIDNIGHT. SEA CONDITION WILL BE VERY
ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, GULF OF
MANNAR AND ALONG & OFF NORTH TAMIL NADU, PUDUCHERRY & SOUTH ANDHRA
PRADESH COASTS.  FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THESE
AREAS.

05 MARCH (DAY 2):  HEAVY RAINFALL AT ISOLATED PLACES VERY LIKELY
OVER COASTAL TAMIL NADU-PUDUCHERRY-KARAIKAL.

 THUNDERSTORM ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHTNING AT ISOLATED PLACES VERY
LIKELY OVER JAMMU-KASHMIR-LADAKH-GILGIT-BALTISTAN-MUZAFFARABAD
AND TAMIL NADU-PUDUCHERRY-KARAIKAL.

 SQUALLY WINDS SPEED REACHING 55-65 KMPH GUSTING TO 75 KMPH VERY
LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, GULF
OF MANNAR AND ALONG & OFF NORTH TAMIL NADU, PUDUCHERRY & SOUTH
ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS TILL 5TH EVENING. THE WINDS WOULD DECREASE
GRADUALLY BECOMING 55-65 KMPH GUSTING TO 75 KMPH OVER THE SAME
REGION TILL 06TH EARLY MORNING.SEA CONDITION WILL BE VERY ROUGH
OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, GULF OF
MANNAR AND ALONG & OFF NORTH TAMIL NADU, PUDUCHERRY & SOUTH ANDHRA
PRADESH COASTS. FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THESE
AREAS.=

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