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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220304160549.EFD6F1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 16:05:49 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 041605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low that is over western
Colombia near 07N76W, westward to 08N87W to 04N100W and to 
05N110W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it 
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N124W to 07N129W to 
06N135W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 80W-85W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 06N between 85W-91W,
also within 60 nm north of the trough between 99W-101W and 
within 30 nm north of the trough between 81W-84W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

An overnight ASCAT pass highlighted fresh to strong north 
winds over the northern part of the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Wave
heights there are in the range of 6-8 ft. Strong southwest 
winds are over the far northern Gulf of California in advance
of a cold front that extends from far southwestern Arizona 
southwest to across northern Baja California and continues
to 29N115W and to the offshore waters to 26N118W and to 
23N124W. Wave heights in the far northern part of the Gulf
are in the 4-6 ft range. Northwest to north winds of 20-30 kt 
are behind the front over the offshore waters of Baja California
Norte as were observed by a couple of ships this morning. Wave 
heights with these winds, as indicated by recent altimeter data 
passes, are in the 8-12 ft range, except for higher wave heights 
of 11-14 ft north of 28N between 120W-126W. Elsewhere across the 
waters, mainly gentle winds prevail along with wave heights of 
5-7 ft. Light to gentle northwest to north winds over the 
southern Gulf of California will become moderate to fresh
northwest winds beginning tonight and through early next week,
with wave heights of 3-4 ft building to 4-6 ft early next week.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong north winds in the Gulf of
Tehunatepec will continue through early Sat, then diminish to
fresh speeds Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds will 
change little through Mon, with the exception of moderate
northwest to north winds remaining offshore Cabo Corrientes.
Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will expand in
coverage west of Baja California by tonight and continue 
through the weekend behind a dissipating cold front. Northwest 
swell will attend the front, with wave heights building to 10-14
ft west of Baja California by tonight. Wave heights of 8-10 ft 
will build southward, off Baja California Sur on Sat. Fresh to 
strong southwest winds are expected in the northern Gulf of 
California ahead of the front through tonight, and will then 
diminish to fresh speeds Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are across the Papagayo 
region, with wave heights to 7 ft. Moderate north winds are in 
the Gulf of Panama, with wave heights of 4-6 ft. Mainly light to
gentle winds are noted elsewhere, along with wave heights of 3-5
ft due to a south to southwest swell, with the exception of wave
heights of up to 6 ft offshore of Ecuador.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo region will continue into early Sat, then 
diminish to fresh speeds Sat afternoon through early Mon, and
moderate speeds through Tue night. The moderate north winds in 
the Gulf of Panama will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds
tonight into early Sat. Gentle winds will continue elsewhere. 
Wave heights offshore of Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands will
subside slightly during the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A cold front extends from northern Baja California southwestward
to 26N118W and to 23N124W. Northwest to north winds of 20-30 kt 
are behind the front along with wave heights of 8-12 ft, with 
the exception of higher wave heights of 11-14 ft in the far
northeast part of the area. Broad high pressure is located east 
of the front to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate winds 
dominate the open waters ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken and dissipate as 
it moves east of the area through the weekend allowing winds 
behind it to diminish to mainly fresh speeds. The wave heights 
behind the front will gradually subside through the weekend.
A tight gradient over the western part of the area between 
strong high pressure over the area west of 130W and low pressure 
west of 140W is leading to fresh to strong east to southeast 
winds north of 24N and west of 138W, with wave heights of 8-10 
ft. By early Sun, these conditions are expected to be north of 
26N and west of 138W. Wave heights to 9 ft in east to southeast 
swell mixing with northeast swell are expected north of 12N and 
west of 131W by this same time.

$$
Aguirre


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