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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Dems-rsmc Special Tropical Cyclones New Delhi Dated 04.03.2022 
Message-ID: <20220304175636.F3EC81C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 17:56:36 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 041755
                     TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 04.03.2022

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1430 UTC
OF 04.03.2022 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 04.03.2022.

DEPRESSION INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS
WITH THE SPEED OF ABOUT 15 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY,
THE 4TH MARCH 2022, OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE 10.0ON AND
LONGITUDE 82.7OE, ABOUT 220 KM NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418), 320
KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM (43347), 380 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
PUDUCHERRY (43331), 420 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279).

IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS OFF EAST COAST OF SRI LANKA
TILL 00 UTC OF 5TH MARCH AND THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS
NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST DURING SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:


DATE/TIME(UTC)  FORECAST       POSITION            MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
CATEGORY OF
               LEAD  PERIOD   (LAT.0N/LONG.0E)  SURFACE  WIND SPEED
CYCLONIC
                                                     (KMPH)
DISTURBANCE

04.03.22/1200    00          10.0/82.7       50-60 GUSTING TO 70
DEEP DEPRESSION
05.03.22/0000    12          10.6/82.4       55-65 GUSTING TO 75
DEEP DEPRESSION
05.03.22/1200    24          10.9/81.9       55-65 GUSTING TO 75
DEEP DEPRESSION
06.03.22/0000    36          11.0/81.5       50-60 GUSTING TO 70
DEEP DEPRESSION
06.03.22/1200    48          11.0/81.1       45-55 GUSTING TO 65
DEPRESSION


THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.0.  ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BET LAT 6.0O N &
16.5O N AND LONG 80OE
TO 88.5OE & SRILANKA. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93 DEG
C.


THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS. THE
SEA CONDITION IS VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL
BAY OF BENGAL.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.


REMARKS:
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WESTCENTRAL  BOB. TROPICAL
CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION.
THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY LIES IN PHASE 5 WITH
AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1.
IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH
AMPLITUDE
REMAINING LESS THAN 1. THE PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED
CONVECTION DURING NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 150 X10-6 S-1 TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 20 X10-5 S-1 TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS IS ABOUT 30 X10-5 S-1 TO THE
NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH
(10-20 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND INCREASES WESTWARDS
TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG LAT 13 DEG NORTH TO THE NORTH
OF SYSTEM AREA. HENCE,  EAST SOUTH-EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST OVER THE
SYSTEM REGION.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 36 HOURS  AND
ALTOUGH NO CONCENSUS ABOUT THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.

IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE DEEP DEPRESSION
OVER SOUTHWEST BOB IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS OFF EAST COAST
OF SRILANKA TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 36 HOURS.


THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF TODAY,
THE 04TH MARCH, 2022.=

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