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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220304184429.D05C41C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 18:44:29 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/041800Z-051800ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 83.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 83.0E, APPROXIMATELY 228.
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 040051Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A 041602Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS THERE ARE
30-35 KT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH. DEEP POCKETS
OF CONVECTION DIRECTLY TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVLEOPMENT TO INCLUDE ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE
AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF
INDIA OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 040930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.6S 55.9E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST OF MADAGASCAR.  ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 041515Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPRETURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES
EAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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