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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220304211645.703701C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 21:16:45 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 042114
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Mar 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from a 1006 mb low that is over western
Colombia near 06N76W, westward to 06N87W to 04N97W and to 
04N110W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it 
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N120W to 06N130W to 
to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
noted from 01N to 06N between 83W-89W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 78W-83W 
and within 30 nm north of the trough between 94W-96W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Fresh to strong north winds are over the northern part of the 
Gulf of Tehunatepec. Wave heights there have lowered slightly
to 5-7 ft. Strong southwest winds are over the far northern Gulf
of California in advance of a cold front that extends from
eastern Arizona southwestward to across central Baja California 
and to the offshore waters near 23N123W. Wave heights in the far
northern part of the Gulf are in the 4-6 ft range. Northwest
winds of 20-25 kt are behind the front over the offshore waters 
of Baja California Norte as were observed by recent ship 
observations. Wave heights with these winds are in the 11-14 ft 
due to a northwest swell. Wave heights are in the 8-12 ft range 
due to a northwest to north swell north of 25N and east of 120W. 
Elsewhere across the waters, mainly gentle winds prevail along 
with wave heights of 5-7 ft. Light to gentle northwest to north 
winds over the southern Gulf of California will become moderate 
to fresh northwest winds beginning tonight and through early next
week, with wave heights of 3-4 ft slowly building, reaching to 
4-6 ft Tue and 5-7 Tue night.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong north winds in the Gulf of 
Tehunatepec will continue through early Sat, then become light 
and variable in the afternoon. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds 
will change little through Mon, with the exception of moderate 
northwest to north winds remaining offshore Cabo Corrientes.
Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will expand in
coverage west of Baja California by tonight and continue 
through the weekend behind a dissipating cold front. Northwest 
swell is accompanying the front, with wave heights of 10-14 ft 
west of Baja California. Wave heights of 8-10 ft will build 
southward, off Baja California Sur on Sat. Fresh to strong 
southwest winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California 
ahead of the front through tonight, and will then diminish to 
fresh speeds Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are across the Papagayo 
region, with wave heights to 7 ft. Moderate north winds are in 
the Gulf of Panama, with wave heights of 4-6 ft. Mainly light to
gentle winds are noted elsewhere, along with wave heights of 3-5
ft due to a south to southwest swell, with the exception of wave
heights of up to 6 ft offshore of Ecuador.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo region will continue into early Sat, then 
diminish to fresh speeds Sat afternoon through early Mon, and
moderate speeds through Tue night. The moderate north winds in 
the Gulf of Panama will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds
tonight into early Sat. Gentle winds will continue elsewhere. 
Wave heights offshore of Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands will
subside slightly during the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A cold front extends from central Baja California southwestward 
to 23N134W. Northwest to north winds of 20-30 kt are behind the 
front along with wave heights of 8-12 ft, with the exception of 
higher wave heights of 11-14 ft in the far northeast part of the
area. Broad high pressure is located east of the front to near 
the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate winds dominate the open 
waters ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken and dissipate as 
it moves east of the area during the weekend allowing winds 
behind it to diminish to mainly fresh speeds. The wave heights 
behind the front will gradually subside through the weekend. A 
tight gradient over the western part of the area between strong 
high pressure over the area west of 130W, and low pressure west 
of 140W is leading to fresh to strong east to southeast winds 
north of 24N and west of 138W, with wave heights of 8-10 ft. By 
early Sun, these conditions are expected to be north of 26N and 
west of 138W. Wave heights to 9 ft in east to southeast swell 
mixing with northeast swell are expected north of 12N and west of
131W by this same time.

$$
Aguirre


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