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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N:  Dems-rsmc Special Tropical Cyclones New Delhi Dated 04.03.2022 
Message-ID: <20220304213412.C6F751C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2022 21:34:12 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 042120


                        TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
 DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 04.03.2022

 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF

 BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 2100 UTC
OF

 04.03.2022 BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 04.03.2022.

 DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL

  THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NEARLY

 NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 06 KMPH DURING LAST 06
HOURS

 AND LAY CENTERED AT 1800 UTC OF 4TH MARCH 2022, OVER THE SAME REGION
NEAR

 LATITUDE 10.3ON AND LONGITUDE 82.6OE, ABOUT 240 KM NORTHEAST OF
TRINCOMALEE

 (43418), 310KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPPATTINAM (43347), 360 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST

  OF PUDUCHERRY (43331) AND ABOUT 450 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI
(43279).

     IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 5TH MARCH MORNING AND
THEN

  MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST DURING

   SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

  DATE/TIME(IST)    FORECAST        POSITION        MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE    CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
                   LEAD PERIOD   (LAT. 0N/ LONG.0E)    WIND SPEED
(KMPH)             DISTURBANCE

 04.03.22/1800        00           10.3 /82.6        50-60 GUSTING TO
70          DEEP DEPRESSION
 05.03.22/0600        12           10.7/82.2         55-65 GUSTING TO
75          DEEP DEPRESSION
 05.03.22/1800        24           10.9/81.7         55-65 GUSTING TO
75          DEEP DEPRESSION
 06.03.22/0600        36           11.0/81.3         50-60 GUSTING TO
70          DEEP DEPRESSION
 06.03.22/1800        48           10.8/80.7         45-55 GUSTING TO
65          DEPRESSION


 THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED
CLOUDS WITH

 EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BET LAT
7.0O N &

 15.5O N AND LONG 80OE TO 88.0OE & SRILANKA. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE IS

  MINUS 93 DEG C.

 THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS.

 THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING
WESTCENTRAL

  BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.

THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER
COUNTRIES,. PLEASE VIS IT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY
SPECIFIC BULLETINS

REMARKS:

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER SOUTHWEST AND

WESTCENTRAL BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80

KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY

LIES IN PHASE 5 W ITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
IN THE

SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING LESS THAN 1.
THE

PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION DURING NEXT 2-3
DAYS.

LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 150 X10-6 S-1 TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM

CENTRE. VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL

CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 20 X10-5 S-1 TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS IS ABOUT 30 X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST OF

SYSTEM CENTRE. WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH (10-20 KNOTS) AROUND
THE

SYSTEM CENTRE AND INCREASES W ESTWARDS TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG LAT 13 DEG NORTH TO THE NORTH OF

SYSTEM AREA. HENCE, EAST SOUTH-EASTERLY W INDS PERSIST OVER THE

SYSTEM REGION.

MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN MOVEMENT OF THE

SYSTEM TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 36 HOURS AND

ALTHOUGH NO CONCENSUS ABOUT THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.

IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE DEEP DEPRESSION
OVER

SOUTHWEST BOB IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH

TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 36 HOURS.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 0300UTC OF 05TH MARCH, 2022.=

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