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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-N:        Bengal And Arabian Sea) Valid For Next 120 Hours Issued At 0300 Utc Of 
Message-ID: <20220305033324.7A8D51C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Mar 2022 03:33:24 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 050332
       SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
       BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF
       05.03.2022 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 05.03.2022.
       DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
                THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWARDS
       WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 13 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000
       UTC OF 5TH MARCH 2022, OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE 11.0°N AND LONGITUDE
       82.6°E, ABOUT 310 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418), 300KM EAST-
       NORTHEAST OF NAGAPPATTINAM (43347), 320 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY
       (43331) AND ABOUT 390 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279).
                IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 1200 UTC OF 5TH MARCH AND THEN
       MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST DURING
       SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS.
       FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
Date/Time(IST)   Forecast     Position        Maximum sustained    Category of cyclonic
                 Lead Period  (Lat.N/long.0E) surface wind speed   disturbance
                                              (KMPH)
                                                                                             
                                                     
05.03.22/0000    00           11.0 /82.6    55-65 GUSTING TO 75    DEEP DEPRESSION
05.03.22/1200    12           11.5/82.4     55-65 GUSTING TO 75    DEEP DEPRESSION
06.03.22/0000    24           11.4/81.9     55-65 GUSTING TO 75    DEEP DEPRESSION
06.03.22/1200    36           11.0/81.3     45-55 GUSTING TO 65    DEPRESSION
07.03.22/0000    48           10.7/80.8     35-45 GUSTING TO 55    DEPRESSION
       THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH
       EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BET LAT 8.0° N &
       15.5° N AND LONG 80°E TO 87.5°E. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 88 DEG
       C.
       THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.
       THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL
       BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.
       REMARKS:
       SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER SOUTHWEST AND
       WESTCENTRAL BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80
       KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY
       LIES IN PHASE 5 W ITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE
       SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING LESS THAN 1. THE
This is a guidance Bulletin for the WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries,. Please vis it respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins
PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION DURING NEXT 2-3
DAYS.
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 150 X10-6 S-1 TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 20 X10-5 S-1 TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 20 X10-5 S-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE(10-15 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND
INCREASES W ESTWARDS TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG LAT 13 DEG NORTH TO THE NORTH OF
SYSTEM AREA. HENCE, EAST SOUTH-EASTERLY W INDS PERSIST OVER THE
SYSTEM REGION.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 36 HOURS AND
ALTHOUGH NO CONCENSUS ABOUT THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER
SOUTHWEST BOB IS LIKELY TO MOVE W EST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS
NORTH TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 36 HOURS.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 0600UTC OF 05TH MARCH, 2022.
                                                     

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