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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220305055451.5558B1C0EF0@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Mar 2022 05:54:51 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZMAR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 25.6S 172.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.6S 171.8W, APPROXIMATELY
325 NM SOUTHEAST OF TONGA (THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN CONTAINED AN ERROR
IN POSITION, THE ERROR IS CORRECTED HERE). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 050419Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT
FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EASTERN PERIPERHY OF AN EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE(15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL CONSOLIDATE, CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD, AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48-72HRS, THEY
ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUBTROPICAL
IN NATURE. THERE REMAINS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE
SYSTEM TO REACH WARNING THRESHOLD AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BEFORE
BECOMING FULLY SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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