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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220305061556.05C0F1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Mar 2022 06:15:55 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 050630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/050630Z-051800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041951ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04MAR22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 11.1N 83.6E, APPROXIMATELY 743 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA,
INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 042100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 83.1E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
SEE PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 55.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY 303
NM EAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 041515Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING
CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-20KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPRETURES (28-29C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES EAST OF MADAGASCAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 14S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 29.5S 79.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 30.5S 79.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 1094 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED
AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 050049Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC) WITH A PROMINENT DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
POLEWARD EDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONDITIONS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (23-24 C), DRY AIR DOMINATING THE LOWER LEVELS AND HIGH
(20-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS 14S IS FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 14S WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE JET AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED
FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
991 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.C.(1) TO
THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY.//
NNNN


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