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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-N: 
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Date: Sat, 5 Mar 2022 06:45:54 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 050645
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05.03.2022

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC
OF 05.03.2022 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 05.03.2022.

DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 14 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED
AT 0300 UTC OF 5TH MARCH 2022, OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE
11.4ON AND LONGITUDE 82.6OE, ABOUT 350 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
TRINCOMALEE (43418), 310KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NAGAPPATTINAM (43347),
300 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY (43331) AND ABOUT 300 KM OF
CHENNAI (43279).

IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 1200 UTC OF 5TH MARCH
EVENING AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST
DURING SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
DATE/TIME     FORECAST     POSITION      MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
(IST)       LEAD PERIOD (LAT.ON/LONG.OE)  WIND SPEED (KMPH)
DISTURBANCE

05.03.22/0300  00      11.4/82.6      55-65 GUSTING TO 75   DEEP
DEPRESSION

05.03.22/1200  12      11.8/82.4      55-65 GUSTING TO 75   DEEP
DEPRESSION

06.03.22/0000  24      11.6/81.8      50-60 GUSTING TO 70   DEEP
DEPRESSION

06.03.22/1200  36      11.3/81.3      45-55 GUSTING TO 65
DEPRESSION

07.03.22/0000  48      10.8/80.6      35-45 GUSTING TO 55
DEPRESSION


THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.0.  ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER
AREA BET LAT 8.5O N & 15.5O N AND LONG 80OE TO 87.5OE. MINIMUM
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 81 DEG C. INTENSE CONVECTION LIES
OVER NORTH-EAST SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO
40 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AND
ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1002 HPA.

REMARKS:

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WESTCENTRAL BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND
60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO)
CURRENTLY LIES IN PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE IN THE SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE
REMAINING LESS THAN 1. THE PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED
CONVECTION DURING NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 150 X10-6 S-1 TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 10 X10-5 S-1 TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 20 X10-5 S-1
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE(10-15 KNOTS)
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND INCREASES WESTWARDS TOWARDS TAMILNADU
COAST.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL OVER
SOUTH PENINSULAR INDIA AND ADJOINING ARABIAN SEA, TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM, THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AFTER
1200 UTC OF THE 5TH MARCH.

MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM TOWARDS NORTH TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 36 HOURS  AND
ALTHOUGH NO CONCENSUS ABOUT THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.

IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE DEEP DEPRESSION
OVER SOUTHWEST BOB IS LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS
NORTH TAMILNADU COAST DURING NEXT 36 HOURS.


THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 0900UTC OF 05TH MARCH, 2022.=

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