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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N:  Tropical Weather Outlook 
Message-ID: <20220305093520.C7A3A1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Mar 2022 09:35:20 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 050921

 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05.03.2022
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0900 UTC
OF
05.03.2022 BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 05.03.2022.
DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWARDS
WITH
A SPEED OF ABOUT 14 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT
0600 UTC OF
5TH MARCH 2022, OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE 11.6ON AND
LONGITUDE 82.6OE,
ABOUT 360 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418), 320KM
EAST-NORTHEAST
OF NAGAPPATTINAM (43347), 300 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY (43331)
AND
ABOUT 290 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279).

IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 1200 UTC OF 5TH MARCH AND
THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST DURING SUBSEQUENT
36 HOURS.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

DATE/TIME(UTC)    FORECAST     POSITION           MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
CATEGORY OF
                               (LAT.0N/LONG. 0E)  SURFACE WIND SPEED
                LEAD PERIOD
CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE
05.03.22/0600   00        11.6/82.6           55-65 GUSTING TO 75
DEEP DEPRESSION
05.03.22/1800   12        11.7/82.3           50-60 GUSTING TO 70
DEEP DEPRESSION
06.03.22/0600   24        11.5/81.6           45-55 GUSTING TO 65
DEPRESSION
06.03.22/1800   36        11.0/80.9           35-45 GUSTING TO 55
DEPRESSION
07.03.22/0600   48        10.5/80.2           20-30 GUSTING TO 40
WELL MARKED LOW

PRESSURE AREA
       THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.0. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
MASS HAS
       SHEARED TO THE NE OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. INTENSITY OF THIS
CONVECTION HAS
       ALSO DECREASED MARGINALLY IN LAST 3 HRS. ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY
COVERING THE
       SYSTEM SHOWS WINDS OF ABOUT 30KTS IN THE NW SECTOR CLOSER TO
THE SYSTEM
       CENTRE AT 0430UTC. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED INTENSE
       TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BET LAT 8.5O N &
17.0O N AND LONG 81OE
       TO 90.0OE. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 73 DEG C.
INTENSE
       CONVECTION LIES OVER NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.
       THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS.
       THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING
WESTCENTRAL
       BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.
THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER
COUNTRIES,. PLEASE VIS IT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY
SPECIFIC BULLETINS
REMARKS:

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WESTCENTRAL BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80
KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY
LIES IN PHASE 5 W ITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
IN THE
SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING LESS THAN 1.
THE
PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION DURING NEXT 2-3
DAYS.

LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 150 X10-6 S-1 TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM
CENTRE. VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 10 X10-5 S-1 TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 20 X10-5 S-1 SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. W IND SHEAR IS MODERATE(10-15 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE
AND INCREASES W ESTWARDS TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL OVER SOUTH
PENINSULAR INDIA AND ADJOINING ARABIAN SEA, TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM, THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AFTER 1200 UTC
OF THE 5TH MARCH. FOR NEXT 24 HOURS, THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, SEA
SURFCAE AND WIND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT THE SYSTEM TO MAI NTAIN IT'S
INTENSITY. THEREAFTER, DUE TO DRY AIR INCURSION FROM SOUTHWEST
SECTOR, DECREASED CORIOLOIS PARAMETER, THE SYSTEM WOULD START
WEAKENING GRADUALLY.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE
NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 1200 UTC OF 5TH MARCH AND THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
DURING SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS.

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