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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220305115712.0CA321C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Mar 2022 11:57:12 +0000
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120 
AWIO20 FMEE 051143

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/03/05 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The monsoon flow is established over the whole width of the basin and feeds a monsoon trough (MT) undulating between 12 and 18S. A large low-pressure area was established between the northern Mascarene Islands and eastern Madagascar in which a poorly organized closed circulation is present. The convective activity of the basin is essentially marked around this minimum and on the northern side of the TM in the convergence of the monsoon flow.

North of the Mascarene Islands:

A closed but rather elongated circulation is present over the northern Mascarene Islands near Tromelin. The ASCAT pass of 02h30UTC shows winds around 15kt near the center and 25/30kt in the periphery. Its structure currently looks like a monsoon depression. The models are quite in agreement concerning the establishment of this minimum but continue to diverge strongly on the evolution for the next week: even if the latest forecasts tend to be close, the American deterministic continues to propose a rapid deepening. The European models (IFS/EPS) propose a slower deepening northwest of Reunion Island due to a less efficient convergence at the surface and a weak northerly shear. The American ensemble (GEFS 06Z) now seems closer to the European models, making their scenario more credible. In the longer term, two opposite scenarios are proposed by the different models (one towards the west towards Madagascar and one towards the southwest between Madagascar and Reunion), in connecti
 on with 
 the upper trough to the south. It is difficult to decide between these scenarios at the moment.

The situation is therefore still very uncertain both on the speed of development and the trajectory of this possible system. Although it is still too early to properly assess the degree of threat to inhabited lands, a deterioration of the weather seems likely early next week over the Mascarene Islands. It is therefore advisable to keep abreast of the next forecast.

The risk of formation of a new tropical storm becomes weak from Sunday and moderate from Tuesday near the north of the Mascarenes.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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