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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/tropical Cyclone 01b (one) Warning Nr 004// 
Message-ID: <20220305140443.A52671C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Mar 2022 14:04:43 +0000
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WTIO31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 11.3N 83.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 83.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 11.4N 82.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 11.0N 81.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 83.2E.
05MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 736 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED WELL
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN AREA OF RAGGED, FLARING CONVECTION. A 051117Z
SSMIS COLOR ENHANCED 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED LLCC APPROXIMATELY 125NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, AS IN
ALL LIKELIHOOD, BASED ON A WIND FIELD ANALYSIS IN THE SSMIS WIND
PRODUCT, THE ONLY REGION WITH POTENTIAL 35 KNOT WINDS IS FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE T2.0 (30 KNOTS), WHILE THE ADT IS T2.4 (34 KNOTS).
HWRF AREA AVERAGED SKEW-T DATA INDICATES STRONG (30 KTS) MID-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS BORN OUT BY THE OVERALL DEPICTION IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR POURING OFF THE INDIAN
SUBCONTINENT IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS
STARTED TO MOVE WEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN ANTICYCLONE
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL INDIA AND WILL TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
INDIAN COAST, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENVELOPE THE LOW LEVEL
REMNANTS OF THE CIRCULATION AND ULTIMATELY CHOKE IT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SOURCE. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 30 KNOTS WITH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT STEADILY APPROACHES THE INDIAN COAST. TRACK
AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THOUGH THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK LIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS
A NOD TO THE RECENT TRACK MOTION, WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14
FEET.//
NNNN


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