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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-N: 
Message-ID: <20220305145723.6CBAA1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Mar 2022 14:57:23 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 051450
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05.03.2022

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC
OF 05.03.2022 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 05.03.2022.

DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED
PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF 5TH MARCH
2022, OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE 11.7ON AND LONGITUDE 82.5OE,
 ABOUT 370 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418), 320KM
EAST-NORTHEAST
 OF NAGAPPATTINAM (43347), 290 KM EAST OF PUDUCHERRY (43331) AND
ABOUT 270 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279). IT IS LIKELY TO
MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST AND WEAKEN
GRADUALLY  INTO A DEPRESSION TILL 0000 UTC OF 06TH MARCH AND INTO A
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA TILL 0000 UTC OF 07TH MARCH.


 FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
 DATE/TIME    FORECAST     POSITION    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
CATEGORY OF
                            (LAT. 0N/
    (UTC)       LEAD                          SURFACE
CYCLONIC
                           LONG. 0E)
               PERIOD                    WIND SPEED (KMPH)
DISTURBANCE
05.03.22/1200    00      11.7/82.5    50-60 GUSTING TO 70    DEEP
DEPRESSION
06.03.22/0000    12      11.6/82.1    45-55 GUSTING TO 65
DEPRESSION
06.03.22/1200    24      11.4/81.7    40-50 GUSTING TO 60
DEPRESSION
                                                             WELL
MARKED LOW
07.03.22/0000    36
                         10.9/81.0    30-40 GUSTING TO 50    PRESSURE
AREA


THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.0.  INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS
HAS SHEARED TO THE NE OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. INTENSITY OF THIS
CONVECTION HAS ALSO DECREASED MARGINALLY IN LAST 3 HRS. ASCAT PASS
PARTIALLY COVERING THE SYSTEM SHOWS WINDS OF ABOUT 30KTS IN THE NW
SECTOR CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM CENTRE AT 0430UTC.  ASSOCIATED BROKEN
LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY
OVER AREA BET LAT 8.5O N & 17.0O N AND LONG 81OE TO 90.0OE. MINIMUM
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 73 DEG C. INTENSE CONVECTION LIES
OVER NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO
40 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AND
ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1002 HPA.

REMARKS:

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WESTCENTRAL BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80
KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY
LIES IN PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
IN THE SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING LESS
THAN 1. THE PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION DURING
NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 150 X10-6 S-1 TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 10 X10-5 S-1 TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 10 X10-5 S-1
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE(10-15 KNOTS)
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND INCREASES WESTWARDS TOWARDS TAMILNADU
COAST.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL OVER
SOUTH PENINSULAR INDIA AND ADJOINING ARABIAN SEA, TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM, THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AFTER 1200
 UTC OF THE 5TH MARCH. FOR NEXT 24 HOURS, THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,
SEA SURFCAE AND WIND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
IT\U2019S
INTENSITY. THEREAFTER, DUE TO DRY AIR INCURSION FROM SOUTHWEST
SECTOR, DECREASED CORIOLOIS PARAMETER, THE SYSTEM WOULD START
WEAKENING GRADUALLY.

MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD
MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 1200 UTC OF 5TH MARCH AND THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS.

IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE DEEP DEPRESSION
OVER SOUTHWEST BOB IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN IT\U2019S INTENSITY FOR
NEXT 12 HOURS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH INITIAL NORTHWESTWARDS
MOVEMENT AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU
COAST DURING SUBSEQUENT 36 HOURS.

THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 2100UTC OF 05TH MARCH, 2022.=

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