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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220305181542.189C81C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Mar 2022 18:15:42 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 83.4E, APPROXIMATELY 736 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA,
INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 051500) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 55.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 54.9E, APPROXIMATELY 412
NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 051252Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) DEFINED BY
FLARING CONVECTION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO
THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPRETURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES
EAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 14S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 30.5S 79.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 31.4S 79.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 1094 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED
AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 051316Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC) WITH A PROMINENT DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE
POLEWARD EDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONDITIONS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ARE UNFAVORABLE WITH COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (23-24 C), DRY AIR DOMINATING THE LOWER LEVELS AND HIGH
(20-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS 14S IS FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 14S WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE JET AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOR
HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED
FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
991 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   D. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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