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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N:        Dems-rsmc Special Tropical Cyclones New Delhi Dated 05.03.2022 
Message-ID: <20220305203551.E52241C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 5 Mar 2022 20:35:51 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 052030
       TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
       DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05.03.2022
       SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
       BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 2030 UTC OF
       05.03.2022 BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 05.03.2022.
       DEEP DEPRESSION WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
       THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NEARLY
       SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 04 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS,
       WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTERED AT 1800 UTC OF 5TH MARCH 2022,
       OVER THE SAME REGION NEAR LATITUDE 11.5°N AND LONGITUDE 82.4°E, ABOUT 350 KM
       NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418), 290 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
       NAGAPPATTINAM (43347), 290 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY (43331) AND ABOUT
       280 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279).
                IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST
       AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 24
       HOURS.
       FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
DATE/TIME(UTC) FORECAST                      POSITION           MAXIMUM SUSTAINED                       CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
                                          (LAT. 0N/ LONG.
                              LEAD                                        SURFACE                              DISTURBANCE
                                                 0
                            PERIOD                E)              WIND SPEED (KMPH)
 05.03.22/1800                   00        11.5/82.4          45-55 GUSTING TO 65                               DEPRESSION
 06.03.22/0600                   12        11.3/82.2          40-50 GUSTING TO 60                               DEPRESSION
 06.03.22/1800                   24                                                                        WELL MARKED LOW
                                           11.0/81.8          30-40 GUSTING TO 50                            PRESSURE AREA
       THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS HAS
       SHEARED TO THE NE OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION HAS
       ALSO DECREASED MARGINALLY IN LAST 3 HRS. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED CLOUDS
       WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER AREA BET LAT 10.5°
       N & 16.5° N AND LONG 82°E TO 90.0°E. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93
       DEG C. INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER NORTHEAST SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM CENT ER.
       THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS.
       THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING
       WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA.
THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES,. PLEASE VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY SPECI FIC BULLETINS
REMARKS:
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER SOUTHWEST AND
WESTCENTRAL BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80
KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION. THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY
LIES IN PHASE 5 W ITH AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE
SAME PHASE FOR NEXT 2 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING LESS THAN 1. THE
PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION DURING NEXT 2-3
DAYS.
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 100 X10-6 S-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
VERTICALLY, IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
HAS DECREAED AND IS AROUND 10 X10-5 S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT 10 X10-5 S-1 TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE(20 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTRE AND INCREASES W ESTWARDS TOWARDS TAMILNADU COAST.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL OVER SOUTH
PENINSULAR INDIA AND ADJOINING ARABIAN SEA, TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM, THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AND DUE TO DRY AIR
INCURSION FROM SOUTHWEST SECTOR, DECREASED CORIOLOIS PARAMETER,
THE SYSTEM WOULD START WEAKENING GRADUALLY.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD
MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.

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