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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Zone Of Disturbed Weather 9 
Message-ID: <20220306015432.DFEB21C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2022 01:54:32 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 060047
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/9/20212022
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 9

2.A POSITION 2022/03/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 54.8 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/06 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2022/03/07 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/07 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/08 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

60H: 2022/03/08 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2022/03/09 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/10 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2022/03/11 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

A CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FORMING SINCE FRIDAY OFF
THE NORTH OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A MONSOON FLOW
SURGE AND STRENGTHENING OF THE TRADE WINDS. CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE
ORGANIZED SINCE FRIDAY EVENING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
NEAR THE ISLAND OF TROMELIN. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW WINDS UP TO 20
TO 25 KT QUITE FAR FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
ACTIVE FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SYSTEM'S PERIPHERY.

THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. IF THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR SEEMS TO DOMINATE, GENERATING A WESTWARD MOVEMENT, THE
PRESENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A
BAROMETRIC COL SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCARENES TEND TO SLOW THIS MOTION.
MOREOVER, THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY ALSO INFLUENCES
THE TRACK, BECAUSE OF MORE OR LESS ELEVATED STEERING FLOWS. GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY STRONG DISPERSION, IN PARTICULAR BETWEEN THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
WHICH TENDS TO KEEP THE SYSTEM EAST OF MADAGASCAR WHILE THE EPS
ENSEMBLE FAVORS A FASTER WESTWARD MOVEMENT, CROSSING THE MALAGASY
LANDS MORE FRANKLY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE IN THE SHORT AND MEDIUM
TERM WITH EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE UNDER THE HIGH TROPOSPHERE RIDGE
AND A DOUBLE OUTFLOW CHANNEL. WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW, NEAR OR
BELOW 10 KT, WITH HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT. OCEANIC POTENTIAL
IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH BUT REMAINS SUFFICIENT, WITH SST AROUND 28C.
THESE CONDITIONS SUGGEST GOOD INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL ONCE THE CORE
OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED. THE MORE OR LESS COMPACT OR
BROKEN MORPHOLOGY OF THE CIRCULATION THUS INDUCES A STRONG
UNCERTAINTY ON THE RAPIDITY OF DEEPENING. THE PRESENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS SLOW INTENSIFICATION UNTIL MONDAY, THEN FASTER ON TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD IS VERY UNCERTAIN,
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A POSSIBLE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
-THE PROBABILITY OF THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OR IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR IS SUBSTANTIAL.
NEVERTHELESS, HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK, SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT ALLOW FOR THE MOMENT TO DETAIL THE
IMPACTED AREAS AND THE TIMING OF WEATHER HAZARDS. DISTURBED WEATHER
FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE FELT AS EARLY AS MONDAY OR TUESDAY IN CASE
OF RAPID MOVEMENT. LOCAL POPULATIONS ARE THEREFORE INVITED TO FOLLOW
CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FORECAST.
-ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE MASCARENES. MODERATELY DISTURBED CONDITIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IN ITS DISTANT PERIPHERY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CONFIRMED IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.=

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