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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Tropical Weather Outlook 
Message-ID: <20220306064356.B9F441C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2022 06:43:56 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 020700

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 02.03.2022


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
 AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
 02.03.2022 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 02.03.2022.


BAY OF BENGAL:


YESTERDAY'S LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL (BOB)
AND ADJOINING EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN (EIO) LAY OVER CENTRAL PARTS
OF SOUTH BOB AND ADJOINING EIO AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 2ND MARCH,
 2022 WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 5.8 KM ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL.


IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME A WELL-MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT
24 HOURS AND CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT 24
 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS SRI
LANKA COAST DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND TOWARDS TAMIL NADU COAST
DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS.


SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE
TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BOB AND
 ADJOINING EIO BETWEEN LATITUDE 2.0N & 10.0N AND LONGITUDE 82.0E &
 90.0E IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA .
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 88 DEG C.  SCATTERED LOW AND
MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER
SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER
CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL & NORTH ANDAMAN SEA.


PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT
 120 HRS:


24 HOURS  24-48 HOURS  48-72 HOURS   72-96 HOURS   96-120 HOURS


LOW          MODERATE        HIGH         NIL             NIL


ARABIAN SEA:


SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER COMORIN AREA AND ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL & SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF
 KARNATAKA-KERALA COASTS.


PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT
 120 HRS:


24 HOURS  24-48 HOURS  48-72 HOURS   72-96 HOURS   96-120 HOURS


NIL          NIL        NIL         NIL             NIL


REMARKS:

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 280C OVER SOUTH BOB. TROPICAL
CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION.
 THE MADDEN JULIAN INDEX (MJO) CURRENTLY LIES IN PHASE 5 WITH
AMPLITUDE LESS THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE SAME PHASE
FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING LESS THAN 1. THE
PHASE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE BOB
 DURING NEXT 2-3 DAYS. FEEBLE EASTERLIES (1-3 MPS) ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL OVER SOUTHWEST BOB DURING NEXT 2-3 DAYS. NO OTHER
EQUATORIAL WAVE IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION DURING NEXT
5 DAYS.


LOW LEVEL VORTICITY HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING PAST
 24 HOURS AND IS AROUND 100 X10-6 S-1  OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH
 BOB. VERTICALLY IT IS EXTENDING UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL
 CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 24 HOURS AND IS AROUND
20 X10-5 S-1  OVER  CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BOB AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS ALSO INCREASED IN PAST 24 HOURS
AND IS AROUND 50 X10-5 S-1 OVER SOUTHWEST BOB TO THE WEST OF SYSTEM
CENTRE.  WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE (25 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE
WITH INCREASING TREND (BECOMING 30-35 KNOTS) TOWARDS SRI LANKA AND
TAMIL NADU COASTS.


MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, ECMWF, GEFS,
NCUM (G), NCUM (R) AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE ARE INDICATING LIKELIHOOD
OF FORMATION OF DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BOB. HOWEVER, THERE IS
VARIATION AMONG VARIOUS MODELS W.R.T. DATE OF FORMATION OF
 DEPRESSION VARYING FROM 3RD TO 4TH MARCH. THERE IS ALSO VARIATION
 AMONG VARIOUS MODELS W.R.T. PEAK INTENSITY.


VARIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BOB WITH LIKELY MOVEMENT
TOWARDS SRI LANKA AND FURTHER TOWARDS TAMIL NADU COASTS. HOWEVER,
 FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO HIGH WIND
SHEAR, COMPARATIVELY COLDER SEA ALONG THE COAST OF TAMIL NADU AND
ABSENCE OF ANY EQUATORIAL WAVE OVER THE REGION.


IN VIEW OF ALL THE ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BOB IS LIKELY TO BECOME WELL
MARKED DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO
A DEPRESSION DURING SUBSEQUENT  24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS SRI LANKA COAST DURING NEXT 24 HOURS
AND TOWARDS TAMIL NADU COAST DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS.=

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