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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Zone Of Disturbed Weather 9 
Message-ID: <20220306074215.1DE401C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2022 07:42:15 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 060641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/9/20212022
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 9

2.A POSITION 2022/03/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 54.8 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/06 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/07 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/07 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 65

48H: 2022/03/08 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 85

60H: 2022/03/08 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100

72H: 2022/03/09 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/10 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/03/11 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INITIALLY CONFINED TO
THE SLOWING DOWN OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM, HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER. MOREOVER, THE ANIMATION OF THE
CLASSICAL IMAGERY DEPICTE QUITE CLEARLY THAT THE 09-20212022 SYSTEM
IS PROGRESSIVELY GAINING IN ORGANIZATION. INDEED, WE NOTE THE SETTING
UP OF A CURVED BAND SOUTH OF THE LOW, WITH TOPS STARTING TO COOL DOWN
PROGRESSIVELY BUT SLOWLY. THE LAST 0515Z SCATTEROMETRICS HAVE
PERMITTED TO REPOSITION MORE PRECISELY THE CLOUD CENTER SYSTEM, A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH-EAST OF TROMELIN AND SHOW AVERAGE WINDS SPEED OF
ABOUT 25KT FAR FROM THE CENTER, IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM.

THE UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS ON THE TRAJECTORY FORECAST OF THIS SYSTEM,
IN CONNECTION WITH ACTION CENTERS OF MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE GENERATING
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. IF THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SEEMS TO DOMINATE, GENERATING A GENERAL
WESTWARDS MOTION, THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM AND A BAROMETRIC COL ALOFT SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES
TEND TO SLOW DOWN THIS MOTION. MOREOVER, THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
INTENSITY IS IMPACTED ON THE TRACK FORECAST, BECAUSE OF THE STEERING
FLOWS LOCATED MORE OR LESS HIGH.
THE LATEST AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MODELS REMAIN DISPERSIVE EVEN IF A
GENERAL WESTWARD TREND IS GRADUALLY EMERGING. THE AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
(GEFS) TENDS TO SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM EAST OF MADAGASCAR WHILE THE
EUROPEAN MODELS (EPS / IFS) FAVORS A FASTER GENERAL MOVEMENT
WESTWARD, MAKING THE MALAGASY LANDS CROSS MORE FRANKLY. THE RSMC
TRACK IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THESE TWO MAIN TRENDS.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE SHORT AND MEDIUM
TERM, WITH AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE POLAR SIDE, FAVORED
BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATE, WITH A GOOD MOIST POTENTIAL OF
THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WHICH SHOULD REMAIN STABLE OVER THE PERIOD.
THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT BUT REMAINS
SUFFICIENT WITH SURFACE WATERS AROUND 28C. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR A PROGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION AS THE HEART OF THE
SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES DURING THE NEXT WEEK. NOTE THAT THE LARGE SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM ASSIMILABLE TO A MOUSSON DEPRESSION, INDICATES A STRONG
INCREASE IN THE SPEED OF DEEPENING. THE PRESENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A
REGULAR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL MONDAY, THEN MORE RAPID BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE STAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM COULD BE
REACHED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN FROM THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL BE CLOSELY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF A
POSSIBLE LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, EVEN IF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
ACCENTUATES THIS SCENARIO IN THIS SENSE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
-THE PROBABILITY OF THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OR IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE EAST/NORTH-EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR IS SIGNIFICANT.
NEVERTHELESS, THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK, THE SPEED OF
MOVEMENT AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT ALLOW FOR THE MOMENT
TO DETAIL THE IMPACTED AREAS AND THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE PHENOMENA. THE
EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BE FELT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY IN CASE OF
RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. THE POPULATION IS THEREFORE INVITED
TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST.

-ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
THE MASCAREIGNES. ALSO MODERATE DISTURBED CONDITIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, SOME MEMBERS OF
THE GFS PERSIST TOWARDS THE ARCHIPELAGO BUT REMAIN MARGINAL. THE
POSSIBLE IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE CONFIRMED IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

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