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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220306112329.590D71C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2022 11:23:29 +0000
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796 
AWIO20 FMEE 061119

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/03/06 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Nil.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The monsoon flow is established over the whole width of the basin and feeds a monsoon trough (MT) undulating between 10 and 16S. A large low-pressure area was established between the northern Mascarene Islands and eastern Madagascar in which develops the system nr 09.

The convective activity of the basin is essentially marked around this minimum and on the northern side of the TM in the convergence of the monsoon flow.

North of the Mascarene Islands:

Zone Perturbee no 09-20212022 :

Position at  09 UTC: 16.07S / 54.02E

Movement  : W 5kt

Maximum wind average over 10 minutes : 25kt

Estimated pressure at the center  : 1003hPa

For more information on the system, refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30  issued at 06utc and following.

The situation is therefore still very uncertain both on the speed of development and the trajectory of this  system. Although it is still too early to properly assess the degree of threat to inhabited lands, a deterioration of the weather seems likely early next week over the Mascarene Islands. It is therefore advisable to keep abreast of the next forecast.

There is no other significant system expected to develop within the next 5 days.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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