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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Zone Of Disturbed Weather 9 
Message-ID: <20220306132904.3C5461C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2022 13:29:04 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 061243
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/9/20212022
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 9

2.A POSITION 2022/03/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 53.7 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/07 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/07 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/08 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/08 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/09 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/09 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/10 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/03/11 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INITIALLY CONFINED TO THE
SLOWING OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM, HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER WAS MOMENTARILY
EXPOSED DURING THE COURSE OF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVED
CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR. CONVECTIVE PUFFS WERE
MOMENTARILY PRODUCED NEAR THE CENTER, INDICATING AN ORGANIZATION THAT
IS STRUGGLING TO SET UP. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE LARGE STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM, WHICH DOES NOT CURRENTLY ALLOW THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A
PERSISTENT CENTRAL CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THUS THE EVOLUTION
INTO A MORE CLASSICAL TROPICAL LOW SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS, WE CAN NOTE
THE BEGINNING OF A CURVATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE SETTING
UP OF A CURVED BAND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW, WITH TOP TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATING ALL AFTERNOON. THE RECENT 0530Z AND 0630Z SCATTEROMETER
DATA  SHOW MEAN WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 25KT QUITE FAR FROM THE CENTER,
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.

THE UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS ON THE FORECAST TRACK, IN CONNECTION WITH
THE HIGHT GEOPOTENTIALS ALOFT GENERATING CONTRADICTORY DIRECTING
FLOWS. IF THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR
SEEMS TO DOMINATE, GENERATING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION, THE PRESENCE
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A BAROMETRIC COL
SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES TEND TO SLOW DOWN THIS MOTION.
MOREOVER, THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY HAS AN IMPACT ON THE
TRAJECTORY FORECAST, BECAUSE OF THE MORE OR LESS HIGH STEERING FLOWS.
THE LATEST AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MODELS REMAIN SCATTERED EVEN IF A
GENERAL WESTWARD TREND IS GRADUALLY EMERGING. THE AMERICAN MODELS
(GEFS / GFS) TEND TO HOLD THE SYSTEM EAST OF MADAGASCAR WHILE THE
EUROPEAN MODELS (EPS / IFS) FAVOR A MUCH FASTER GENERAL WESTWARD
MOVEMENT, MAKING THE MALAGASY LANDS CROSS MORE FRANKLY OVER THE
PERIOD. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THESE
TWO MAIN TRENDS.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE IN THE SHORT AND MEDIUM
TERM, WITH A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE POLAR COAST, FAVORED BY THE
DRIFT OF AN UPPER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATE, WITH A GOOD MID-TROPOSPHERE MOIST
POTENTIAL THAT SHOULD REMAIN STABLE OVER THE PERIOD. THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT BUT REMAINS SUFFICIENT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE TO A PROGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION IF AND ONLY
IF THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM EVOLVES TOWARDS A MORE CLASSICAL
TROPICAL LOW SYSTEM, WITH A REINFORCED CONSOLIDATION OF THE CORE
DURING THE NEXT WEEK. INDEED THE SIZE OF THE CURRENT SYSTEM, SIMILAR
TO A MONSOON DEPRESSION, INDUCES A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF
THE DEEPENING.

THE PRESENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OR EVEN A
LEVELLING OFF UNTIL MONDAY, THEN POTENTIALLY A DEEPENING TO THE STAGE
OF A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. BEYOND THAT, THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE CLOSELY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING
OF AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR, EVEN IF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
IS MORE AND MORE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
-THE PROBABILITY OF THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OR IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE EAST/NORTH-EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR REMAINS HIGH.
NEVERTHELESS, THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK, THE SPEED OF
MOVEMENT AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT ALLOW FOR THE MOMENT
TO DETAIL THE IMPACTED AREAS AND THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE PHENOMENA. THE
EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BE FELT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY IN CASE OF
RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. THE POPULATION IS THEREFORE INVITED
TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST.
-ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
THE MASCAREIGNES. THUS MODERATE DISTURBED CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.=

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