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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Zone Of Disturbed Weather 9 
Message-ID: <20220306185750.1F40C1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2022 18:57:50 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 061855
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/9/20212022
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 9

2.A POSITION 2022/03/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 53.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/07 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/07 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/08 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/08 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/09 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/09 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/10 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/03/11 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HAD MOVED
CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS
CHANGED LITTLE. IT REMAINS MODERATE AND WEAKLY EXTENDED. THE LAST
MICROWAVE DATA OF 1447UTC AND THE ASCAT SWATH OF 1747UTC ALLOW TO
NOTE A POORLY DEFINED AND RATHER WIDE LOW LAYER CIRCULATION. THE
WINDS REACH 25KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT LEAVING THE SYSTEM
09-20212022 AT THE STAGE OF A DISTURBED ZONE AND A DVORAK ANALYSIS
THAT CANNOT EXCEED 1.5. THE LAST LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THIS STILL
EMBRYONIC SYSTEM SHOWS A RATHER ERRATIC TRACK WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST
COMPONENT MOVING PROGRESSIVELY WEST-NORTHWEST.

THERE IS STILL A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK FORECAST
OF THIS STILL EMBRYONIC SYSTEM. IN CONNECTION WITH MID-TROPOSPHERE
ACTION CENTERS GENERATING CONTRADICTORY SHORT- AND MEDIUM-RANGE
STEERING FLOWS, THE TRACK IS RATHER HESITANT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
IF THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SEEMS
TO DOMINATE, GENERATING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION, THE PRESENCE OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A BAROMETRIC PASS
SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCARENES TEND TO SLOW DOWN THIS MOTION AND INDUCE
A RATHER ERRATIC TRACK FOR THIS LOW INTENSITY SYSTEM. MOREOVER, THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY HAS AN IMPACT ON THE TRACK FORECAST,
BECAUSE OF THE STEERING FLOWS LOCATED MORE OR LESS HIGH. THE LAST
MODELS REMAIN DISPERSIVE EVEN IF A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS THE WEST IS
GRADUALLY EMERGING, LEADING THE SYSTEM TO LAND ON MADAGASCAR IN THE
NEXT 36/48 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE MODELS PROPOSE TWO SCENARIOS
LEAVING THE SYSTEM TRANSITING ON LAND OR GOING OUT TO SEA IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BEFORE RETURNING TO LAND VIA THE WEST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. THE LONG RANGE FORECAST OF THE RSMC TRACK IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS LETTING THE SYSTEM TRANSIT ON LAND WITH A RATHER LOW SPEED
BEFORE A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT THE END OF THE TIME SCALE.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER FAVORABLE IN THE SHORT AND
MEDIUM TERM, HOWEVER THE RATHER LARGE STRUCTURE OF THIS STILL
EMBRYONIC SYSTEM DOES NOT ALLOW IT TO REACT FAVORABLY TO THESE
CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY FRANKLY.
IT IS NECESSARY FIRST OF ALL THAT THE CIRCULATION OF LOW LAYERS
CONSOLIDATES AND THAT IS LIKELY TO COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF LANDING
ON MADAGASCAR, BRINGING IT TO THE THRESHOLD OF MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM. THEREAFTER, THE RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD TRANSIT OVER LAND WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE MASCAREIGNES LIMITING ITS
DIRECT INFLUENCE ON THE ISLANDS.
- THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK, THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT ALLOW FOR THE MOMENT TO DETAIL THE
IMPACTED AREAS AND THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE PHENOMENA. THE EFFECTS OF
THIS SYSTEM COULD BE FELT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY MAINLY IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATIONS, THE AVERAGE WINDS REMAINING OF ABOUT 35KT OR A LITTLE
LESS THAN 100KM/H IN GUSTS. THE POPULATION IS THEREFORE INVITED TO
FOLLOW CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST.=

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