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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Zone Of Disturbed Weather 9 
Message-ID: <20220307003340.517B51C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2022 00:33:40 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 070032
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/9/20212022
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 9

2.A POSITION 2022/03/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 52.4 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/07 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/08 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/08 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/09 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/09 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/10 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/11 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/03/12 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED A
LITTLE MORE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION, DEFINING A
BEGINNING OF CURVATURE. THIS CONFIGURATION STILL SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
VORTEX CLOSE TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION IN COHERENCE WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM ACCORDING TO
THE CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS DOES NOT EVOLVE AND LEAVES
THE SYSTEM IN A DISTURBED ZONE AT 25KT, PRESENTING A TRACK THAT IS
ORIENTED TOWARDS THE WEST.

THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK FORECAST OF THIS
STILL EMBRYONIC SYSTEM. IN CONNECTION WITH MID-TROPOSPHERE ACTION
CENTERS GENERATING CONTRADICTORY SHORT- AND MEDIUM-RANGE STEERING
FLOWS, THE TRACK IS RATHER HESITANT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IF THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SEEMS TO
DOMINATE, GENERATING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION, THE PRESENCE OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A BAROMETRIC PASS
SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCARENES TEND TO SLOW DOWN THIS MOTION AND INDUCE
A RATHER ERRATIC TRACK FOR THIS LOW INTENSITY SYSTEM. MOREOVER, THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY HAS AN IMPACT ON THE TRACK FORECAST,
BECAUSE OF THE STEERING FLOWS LOCATED MORE OR LESS HIGH. THE LAST
MODELS REMAIN DISPERSIVE EVEN IF A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS THE WEST IS
GRADUALLY EMERGING, LEADING THE SYSTEM TO LAND ON MADAGASCAR IN THE
NEXT 36/48 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE MODELS PROPOSE TWO SCENARIOS
LEAVING THE SYSTEM TRANSITING ON LAND OR GOING OUT TO SEA IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BEFORE RETURNING TO LAND VIA THE WEST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR. THE LONG RANGE FORECAST OF THE RSMC TRACK IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS LETTING THE SYSTEM TRANSIT ON LAND WITH A RATHER LOW SPEED
BEFORE A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT THE END OF THE TIME SCALE. IN
THIS SCENARIO, A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE AREA COULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT SETS UP IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

DESPITE A NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR ANALYZED BY THE CIMSS AT THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SYSTEM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER
FAVORABLE IN THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM, HOWEVER THE RATHER LARGE
STRUCTURE OF THIS STILL EMBRYONIC SYSTEM DOES NOT ALLOW IT TO REACT
FAVORABLY TO THESE CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE STRUGGLING TO
INTENSIFY FRANKLY. IT IS NECESSARY FIRST OF ALL THAT THE CIRCULATION
OF LOW LAYERS CONSOLIDATES AND THAT IS LIKELY TO COINCIDE WITH THE
TIME OF LANDING ON MADAGASCAR, BRINGING IT TO THE THRESHOLD OF
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. THEREAFTER, THE RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD
TRANSIT OVER LAND WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE MASCAREIGNES LIMITING ITS
DIRECT INFLUENCE ON THE ISLANDS.
- FOR MADAGASCAR, THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK, THE SPEED OF
MOVEMENT AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DO NOT ALLOW FOR THE MOMENT
TO DETAIL THE IMPACTED AREAS AND THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE PHENOMENA. THE
EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BE FELT ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY MAINLY IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATIONS, THE AVERAGE WINDS REMAINING OF ABOUT 35KT OR
A LITTLE LESS THAN 100KM/H IN GUSTS.
- THE POPULATION OF MADAGASCAR IS THEREFORE INVITED TO FOLLOW CLOSELY
THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST.=

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