Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Disturbance 9 
Message-ID: <20220307065904.1BA4E1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2022 06:59:04 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1646636350-112669-10698"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1646636350-112669-10698
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 070646
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/9/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9

2.A POSITION 2022/03/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 52.2 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/07 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/08 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/08 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/09 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 46.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/09 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2022/03/10 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/11 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 55

120H: 2022/03/12 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 50 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5

SYSTEM 09 REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A FLUCTUATING AND POORLY ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE COMPARISON OF THE IMAGES AT 24 HOURS
INTERVAL SHOWS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN
EXCEPT A SLIGHTLY CLEARER DEFINITION OF THE CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY THE
SYSTEM IS ANALYZED AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (BETTER DEFINED CENTER)
BUT WITH STILL WEAK WINDS OF ABOUT 25 KT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE ACTION CENTERS THAT CAN DRIVE THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM'S TRACK REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX WITH THE PRESENCE OF
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. WE CAN DISTINGUISH : THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, GENERATING A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOVEMENT, THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM AND A BAROMETRIC COL SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES TENDING
TO GIVE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE MODELS, AS
WELL AS A GROWING NUMBER OF MEMBERS OF THE CENTRAL EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST, FAVOR A STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
PRESENT SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND THUS A FAIRLY SUSTAINED WESTWARD
TRACK. AS A CONSEQUENCE, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY
ADJUSTED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A TRACK CROSSING THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK, A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD CAUSE A SLOWING OF THE TRACK. A
RATHER MODERATE CONFIDENCE IS STILL GIVEN TO THIS SCENARIO WHICH IS
STILL NOT SHARED BY THE AMERICAN GFS MODEL (DOMINANT EFFECT OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN ITS PHILOSOPHY).

THE SYSTEM HAS NOT INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS, POTENTIALLY
LINKED TO A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT IS NOT VERY EFFICIENT AND
RATHER DIFFUSE (IN SPITE OF THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON FLOW AND THE
TRADE WINDS). WE ALSO NOTE THIS MORNING THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR OF
AVERAGE TROPOSPHERE NEAR THE CENTER. ON THE FORECASTED TRACK,
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL ON
MADAGASCAR, WITH A CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS INCREASING AT THE
APPROACH OF THE COASTS, AN ENVIRONMENT BECOMING VERY WET IN MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE AND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR. AN
INTENSIFICATION TO THE MINIMAL STAGE OF A TROPICAL STORM IS STILL
POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDS ON THE TIMING BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS SCENARIO IS
SUGGESTED BY THE AROME-INDIAN MODEL. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE RATHER FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION: HIGH OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT, VERY HUMID ATMOSPHERE
AT THE MID-LEVELS, BUT AN EASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT IS POSSIBLE. A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE ENVISAGED ON THE NEW TRACK.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- FOR MADAGASCAR, THIS SYSTEM REPRESENTS ESSENTIALLY A FLOOD THREAT.
THE FIRST RAINFALLS STARTED LAST NIGHT OVER THE CAPE MASAOLA AREA.
THEY WILL INTENSIFY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM ON THE SECTORS
LOCATED BETWEEN CAPE MASAOLA IN THE NORTH AND TAMATAVE IN THE SOUTH.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 50-100 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS AND 100-150 MM OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS. DURING
THE NIGHT OF TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL REACH THE
NORTHWEST REGION BETWEEN NOSY-BE AND MAJUNGA. DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, GUSTS OF 90-100 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE LANDING ZONE ON THE EAST COAST. THE POPULATION OF MADAGASCAR IS
THEREFORE INVITED TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST.

- ON THE NEW FORECAST, THIS SYSTEM COULD CONSTITUTE A THREAT IN THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME (MORE THAN 300 KM OF
AVERAGE ERROR IN THE 120H FORECAST), IT IS TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY THE
IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED TIMING.=

------------=_1646636350-112669-10698
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1646636350-112669-10698--