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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220307112532.BB4211C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2022 11:25:32 +0000
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523=20
AWIO20 FMEE 071122

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/03/07 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 009/9 issued at 06utc on the Tropical Disturbance=
 09-20212022.

Next warnings at 12utc.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present over the whole width of the ba=
sin and feeds a Monsoon trough (MT) undulating between 8S and 14S, East of =
58E.

A Tropical Disturbance is currently monitored by Reunion RSMC, off Cape Mas=
oala (North-East of Madagascar). The convective activity is essentially loc=
ated around this tropical low system and on the northern and southern sides=
 of the MT, in the low level convergence of the monsoon flow.

Translated with https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.DeepL.com/Translator=
__;!!DZ3fjg!rng6zVgfoDj_JlEXSQGZ3exCkfnUw_5eXsbMltSMBz9Zx6X3cJ2BHfY1ESErhDm=
cAWoVWEgb$  (free version)

North-est of magalasy coasts:

Tropical Disturbance nro 09-20212022 :

Position at  09 UTC: 15.5N  52.0E

Movement  : South-west at 4kt

Maximum wind average over 10 minutes : 25kt gust 35kt

Estimated pressure at the center  : 1003hPa

For more information on the system, refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30  i=
ssued at 06utc and following.

The tropical disturbance should progressively intensify as it approaches th=
e Malagasy coast until it potentially reaches the stage of a Moderate Tropi=
cal Storm (MTT) by tomorrow morning. After crossing Madagascar, the system =
should enter the Mozambique Channel on Wednesday at a weakened stage before=
 undergoing a new phase of intensification to reach again the stage of TTM.=
 Consequently, the risk of formation of a tropical storm becomes moderate f=
rom tomorrow Tuesday in the East of Madagascar and becomes important from W=
ednesday, in the Mozambique Channel.

There is no other significant system expected to develop within the next 5 =
days.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a =
moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%     =
   Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and fro=
m the african coastlines to 90E.

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