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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Depression 9 
Message-ID: <20220307125339.F183C1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2022 12:53:39 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 071215
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/9/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9

2.A POSITION 2022/03/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 51.9 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/08 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/08 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/09 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/09 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/10 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2022/03/10 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/11 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2022/03/12 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SW: 85 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CENTER IS NOW COVERED BY THE CONVECTIVE MASS
IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE 37 GHZ IMAGERY OF THE AMSR2 FROM 1034Z SHOWS
HOWEVER A MARGINAL GAIN OF ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KT SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATE OF DVORAK.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE ACTION CENTERS THAT CAN DRIVE THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM'S TRACK REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX WITH THE PRESENCE OF
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. WE CAN DISTINGUISH : THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF LOW TO MEDIUM TROPO SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, GENERATING A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION, THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A BAROMETRIC COLLAR IN MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES TENDING TO GIVE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE MODELS, AS WELL AS A GROWING NUMBER OF
MEMBERS OF THE CENTRAL EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST, FAVOR A STEERING
FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND
THUS A FAIRLY PERMANENT WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
IN THIS PHILOSOPHY. IN THIS CONTEXT, THERE IS NEVERTHELESS AN
UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT MAINLY BUT ALSO ON THE POSITION
OF THE CENTER WHEN IT ARRIVES ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL (NORTH-SOUTH
SPREAD)

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BEFORE THE
LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR, WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVELS CONVERGENCE AT
THE APPROACH OF THE COASTS, AN ENVIRONMENT BECOMING VERY WET IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE AND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR. THE
PROBABILITIES ARE THUS INCREASING FOR AN INTENSIFICATION TO THE
MINIMAL STAGE OF TROPICAL STORM. OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION:
HIGH OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT, VERY HUMID ATMOSPHERE IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE, BUT SOME SLIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR IS POSSIBLE. A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS THUS EXPECTED AND IT IS MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A TC WITHIN A FEW DAYS OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- FOR MADAGASCAR, THIS SYSTEM IS ESSENTIALLY A RAINFALL THREAT. RAINS
ARE INTENSIFYING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREAS
BETWEEN CAPE MASAOLA IN THE NORTH AND TAMATAVE IN THE SOUTH.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 50-100 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS AND 100-150 MM OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS. DURING
THE NIGHT OF TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL REACH THE
NORTHWEST REGION BETWEEN NOSY-BE AND MAJUNGA. DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, GUSTS OF 90-100 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE LANDING ZONE ON THE EAST COAST. THE POPULATION OF MADAGASCAR IS
THEREFORE INVITED TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST.

- THIS SYSTEM COULD CONSTITUTE A THREAT IN THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK FOR A PART OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME (MORE THAN 300 KM OF AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR
AT 120H), IT IS TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY THE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE ASSOCIATED TIMING.=

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