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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean) 
Message-ID: <20220307182340.414AC1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2022 18:23:40 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 071822 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/9/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 51.2 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/08 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 55

24H: 2022/03/08 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/09 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/09 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/10 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2022/03/10 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/11 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 95 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 95 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION, COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS AND INCREASED
ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE CENTER IS NOW UNDER THE CONVECTIVE MASS IN VISIBLE IMAGING.
 THE CLASSICAL IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT GAIN IN CONVECTION
ORGANIZATION. THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE ACTION CENTERS THAT CAN DRIVE THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM'S TRACK REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX WITH THE PRESENCE OF
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. WE CAN DISTINGUISH : THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF LOW TO MEDIUM TROPO SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, GENERATING A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION, THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A BAROMETRIC COLLAR IN MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES TENDING TO GIVE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE MODELS, AS WELL AS A GROWING NUMBER OF
MEMBERS OF THE CENTRAL EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST, FAVOR A STEERING
FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND
THUS A FAIRLY PERMANENT WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
IN THIS PHILOSOPHY. IN THIS CONTEXT, THERE IS NEVERTHELESS AN
UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT MAINLY BUT ALSO ON THE POSITION
OF THE CENTER WHEN IT ARRIVES ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL (NORTH-SOUTH
SPREAD)

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BEFORE THE
LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR, WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVELS CONVERGENCE AT
THE APPROACH OF THE COASTS, AN ENVIRONMENT BECOMING VERY WET IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE AND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR. THE
PROBABILITIES ARE THUS INCREASING FOR AN INTENSIFICATION TO THE
MINIMAL STAGE OF TROPICAL STORM. OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION:
HIGH OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT, VERY HUMID ATMOSPHERE IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE, BUT SOME SLIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR IS TEMPORALY POSSIBLE
AT THE BEGINNIG OF THE PERIOD. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS THUS
EXPECTED AND IT IS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
TC WITHIN A FEW DAYS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- FOR MADAGASCAR, THIS SYSTEM IS ESSENTIALLY A RAINFALL THREAT. RAINS
ARE INTENSIFYING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREAS
BETWEEN CAPE MASAOLA IN THE NORTH AND TAMATAVE IN THE SOUTH.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 50-100 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS AND 100-150 MM OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS. DURING
THE NIGHT OF TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL REACH THE
NORTHWEST REGION BETWEEN NOSY-BE AND MAJUNGA. DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, GUSTS OF 90-100 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE LANDING ZONE ON THE EAST COAST. THE POPULATION OF MADAGASCAR IS
THEREFORE INVITED TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST.

- THIS SYSTEM COULD CONSTITUTE A THREAT IN THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK FOR A PART OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME (MORE THAN 300 KM OF AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR
AT 120H), IT IS TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY THE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE ASSOCIATED TIMING.=

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