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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220307210140.C59271C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2022 21:01:40 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 071800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN CORRECTED/071800Z-081800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071051ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 52.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 52.1E, APPROXIMATELY
233NM NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC FROM THE SOUTH, WHILE A RECENT 070544Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS
REVEALS A DOMINATE SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH FEEBLE
RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 97S WILL REMAIN GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE NEAR-TERM AND
THEN MEANDER SLOWLY WEST TOWARDS MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36.
HOWEVER THE TIMING OF WHEN 97S REACHES WARNING CRITERIA DIFFERS,
WITH MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING HWRF AND COAMPS-TC INTENSIFYING THE
DISTURBANCE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS, PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, WHILE ECMWF AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS HOLD THE
INTENSITY BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH LANDFALL, FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 071100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED PARA 2.B.(1) REFERENCE
MANOP.//
NNNN


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