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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (invest 97s) Corrected// 
Message-ID: <20220307211442.2C0D61C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2022 21:14:41 +0000
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WTXS21 PGTW 071100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S) CORRECTED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061151ZMAR22//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2S 52.2E TO 15.1S 48.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 52.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 52.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 52.1E, APPROXIMATELY
233NM NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC FROM THE SOUTH, WHILE A RECENT 070544Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS
REVEALS A DOMINATE SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH FEEBLE
RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 97S WILL REMAIN GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE NEAR-TERM AND
THEN MEANDER SLOWLY WEST TOWARDS MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36.
HOWEVER THE TIMING OF WHEN 97S REACHES WARNING CRITERIA DIFFERS,
WITH MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING HWRF AND COAMPS-TC INTENSIFYING THE
DISTURBANCE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS, PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, WHILE ECMWF AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS HOLD THE
INTENSITY BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH LANDFALL, FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
081100Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED AMPLIFICATION REFERENCE
TYPE.//
NNNN


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