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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220307213513.F032B1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2022 21:35:13 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 072135
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Mar 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2010 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W to 05.5N81W 
to 07N88W to 04N106W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N106W to 08.5N130W
to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 30 nm of line from 06.5N82W to 
05.5N87W, and from 06.5N to 10.5N W of 122W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted S of 02N between 88W and 92W and from 04N to 
06N between 106W and 117W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A relatively narrow surface ridge extends from strong high
pressure across the NE Pacific through 30N131W to near 18N107W. 
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure 
across the Sierra Madre Occidentales of Mexico is producing 
mainly fresh NW to N winds within 150 nm offshore of Baja 
California N of Cabo San Lazaro, and moderate N winds elsewhere 
southward to 18N. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell across the 
offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro, and 6 to 8 ft elsewhere. 
Moderate side shore winds are occurring near the coast along Cabo
Corrientes and Puerto Angel. Otherwise to the S of 18N, winds 
are light and seas are 4 to 6 ft.

Inside the Gulf of California, fresh northerly winds prevail
south of the Tiburon Basin, where seas are 3-5 ft, except to 6 ft
at the mouth of the Gulf.

Fresh northerly winds offshore Baja California Norte today will 
diminish slightly tonight. NW swell and current seas of 7 to 9 
ft will also decay to 6-8 ft in this area. High pressure will
build southward between 125W and 140W through midweek, and
maintain moderate winds offshore of Baja and fresh to locally
strong winds inside the Gulf of California through Tue. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas will 
prevail into mid-week. 

Looking ahead, strong winds are expected to spread from north 
portions of the Gulf of California through the full length of the
basin Thu night through Sat morning. A strong gale event is 
expected to develop across the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the 
weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate NE winds are noted across the Papagayo region, with 
gentle to moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, 
winds are light to gentle with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

Winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh tonight and
Tue night before gradually diminishing through the end of the 
week. Moderate north winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse 
nightly through mid week becoming light to gentle the remainder 
of the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. New
SW swell will mix with WNW swell across the regional waters on 
Thu to raise seas slightly.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

N of the ITCZ to 21N, widespread moderate to fresh NE to E winds
prevail due to the pressure gradient between the ITCZ and the 
high pressure to the north. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in mixed swell. 
Across NW portions, fresh to strong SE winds N of 24N and W of 
138W are associated with the pressure gradient between a trough 
west of the area and high pressure. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen on satellite imagery there from 24.5N to 27N 
W of 139W. To the S of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate E to SE winds
prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

Winds will subside across waters N of 25N as the ridge remains in
place. However, the pressure gradient S of 25N and W of 122W will
support fresh trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft most of the week. 
The trough W of the area will weaken, allowing winds to relax to 
fresh and seas to fall under 8 ft by midweek.

$$
Stripling


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