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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 9 (gombe) 
Message-ID: <20220308011712.B15F01C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 8 Mar 2022 01:17:12 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 080112
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/9/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 50.3 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/08 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/03/09 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/09 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/10 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/10 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2022/03/11 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/12 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2022/03/13 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 95 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 65 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 40 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS CROSSING THE TIP OF THE MAOSALA
PENINSULA. AFTER A PASSAGE OVER ANTONGIL BAY, IT WILL START THE
CROSSING OF THE MADAGASCAR.
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION, COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AND
INCREASE OF THE ELECTRIC ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE, BEFORE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SIGNS OF WEAKENING DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LAND.
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 35 KT, IS CONFIRMED BY A SMAP PASS OF
1458UTC (MAX WIND OF 33KT).

THE EVOLUTION OF THE ACTION CENTERS THAT CAN DRIVE THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM'S TRACK REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX WITH THE PRESENCE OF
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. WE CAN DISTINGUISH : THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF LOW TO MEDIUM TROPO SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, GENERATING A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION, THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A BAROMETRIC COLLAR IN MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES TENDING TO GIVE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE MODELS, AS WELL AS A GROWING NUMBER OF
MEMBERS OF THE CENTRAL EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST, FAVOR A STEERING
FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND
THUS A FAIRLY PERMANENT WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
IN THIS PHILOSOPHY. IN THIS CONTEXT, THERE IS NEVERTHELESS AN
UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT MAINLY BUT ALSO ON THE POSITION
OF THE CENTER WHEN IT ARRIVES ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL (NORTH-SOUTH
SPREAD)

OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION: HIGH OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT, VERY
HUMID ATMOSPHERE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, BUT SOME SLIGHT EASTERLY
SHEAR IS TEMPORALY POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNIG OF THE PERIOD. A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS THUS EXPECTED AND IT IS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A TC WITHIN A FEW DAYS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- FOR MADAGASCAR, THIS SYSTEM IS ESSENTIALLY A RAINFALL THREAT. RAINS
ARE INTENSIFYING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREAS
BETWEEN CAPE MASAOLA IN THE NORTH AND TAMATAVE IN THE SOUTH.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 50-100 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS AND 100-150 MM OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS. DURING
THE NIGHT OF TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL REACH THE
NORTHWEST REGION BETWEEN NOSY-BE AND MAJUNGA. DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, GUSTS OF 90-100 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE LANDING ZONE ON THE EAST COAST. THE POPULATION OF MADAGASCAR IS
THEREFORE INVITED TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST.

- THIS SYSTEM COULD CONSTITUTE A THREAT IN THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK FOR A PART OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME (MORE THAN 300 KM OF AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR
AT 120H), IT IS TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY THE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE ASSOCIATED TIMING.=

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