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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 9 (gombe) 
Message-ID: <20220308073113.EE5C01C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 8 Mar 2022 07:31:13 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 080730
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 49.3 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/08 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/03/09 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/03/09 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2022/03/10 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 95

60H: 2022/03/10 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/03/11 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/12 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 85 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2022/03/13 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, GOMBE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS STARTED TO
DEGRADE SIGNIFICANTLY IN RELATION WITH ITS EVOLUTION OVER LAND. THE
INTENSITY IS DOWNGRADED TO 30KT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN ACTION CENTERS DRIVING THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX WITH OPPOSING STEERING FLOWS. WE
DISTINGUISH : THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TO MEDIUM TROPO SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR, GENERATING A WESTWARD MOVEMENT, THE PRESENCE OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM DRIVING IT EASTWARD. THE
AMERICAN MODELS, NOTABLY THE GFS, HAVE CONTINUED TO GET CLOSER IN
THEIR SCENARIO TO THE EUROPEAN IFS MODEL AND ITS ENSEMBLE, STILL
PROPOSING A WESTWARD MOTION. NEVERTHELESS, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE MOTION SPEED AND THUS IN THE TIMING PERSIST ( GFS IS SLOWER),
PROBABLY IN RELATION WITH THESE OPPOSITE FLOWS. THE PRESENT FORECAST
IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FAVORING THE IFS/EPS SCENARIOS. ON
THIS TRACK, GOMBE COULD REGAIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY THE END OF
NEXT NIGHT AND APPROACH THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA IN MOZAMBIQUE FROM
FRIDAY. A LANDING SEEMS POSSIBLE BUT IT IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. DUE
TO A CHANGE IN THE STEERING FLOW WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
GROWING TO THE EAST, THE TRACK SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND CURVE
SOUTH-EASTWARDS.

IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION: IMPORTANT OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT,
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, NO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPICS IN SPITE OF
THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT. THE LATTER SEEMS TO BE PARTLY COUNTERBALANCED
BY THE MOTION IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS
THUS EXPECTED AND IT IS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME A MATURE PHENOMENON WITHIN A FEW DAYS IN THE CHANNEL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- FOR MADAGASCAR, THIS SYSTEM REPRESENTS ESSENTIALLY A RAINFALL
THREAT. ALONG THE TRACK, ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150MM LOCALLY MORE
THAN 200MM IN 24H ARE EXPECTED.

- FOR COMOROS AND MAYOTTE, HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
PERIPHERY OF GOMBE TEMPORARILY BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

- BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THIS SYSTEM COULD POSE A SERIOUS THREAT TO
NAMPULA PROVINCE IN MOZAMBIQUE. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY
THE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED TIMING.=

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