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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220308114917.F11F11C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 8 Mar 2022 11:49:17 +0000
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376 
AWIO20 FMEE 081147

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/03/08 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO24 and WTIO30 0010/9 issued at 06utc on the Overland Depression GOMBE

Next warnings at 12utc.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present over the whole width of the basin and feeds a Monsoon trough (MT) undulating between 8S and 14S.Convective activity is moderate to strong near GOMBE and on the northern side of the MT.

Overland Depression GOMBE :
Position at 10 UTC: 14.9S/48.8E
Movement  : North-West at 9kt
Maximum wind average over 10 minutes : 20kt
Estimated pressure at the center  : 1002hPa
For more information on the system, refer to bulletins WTIO24 and WTIO30  issued at 06utc and following.

North of the Mascarene :

By the end of the week, with the increase of the polar inflow and the persistence of a residual monsoon flow, a weak minimum may appear north of the Mascarenes. Most of the numerical guidance do not suggest a significant deepening because of a lack of equatorial convergence a slight westerly shear.

There is no other significant system expected to develop within the next 5 days.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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