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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Overland Depression 9 (gombe) 
Message-ID: <20220308125133.59BA51C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 8 Mar 2022 12:51:33 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 081235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/9/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 48.4 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/09 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 110

24H: 2022/03/09 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/03/10 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/10 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 95 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/11 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/11 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/12 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2022/03/13 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, GOMBE SATELLITE SIGNATURE CONTINUED TO
DETERIORATE. THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITES
IMAGES APPEAR TO BECOME ELONGATED, MAKING HARD THE PRECISE LOCATION
OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN ACTION CENTERS DRIVING THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX WITH OPPOSING STEERING FLOWS. WE
DISTINGUISH : THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TO MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, GENERATING A WESTWARD MOVEMENT, THE PRESENCE OF
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM DRIVING IT EASTWARD. THE
AMERICAN MODELS, NOTABLY THE GFS, HAVE CONTINUED TO GET CLOSER IN
THEIR SCENARIO TO THE EUROPEAN IFS MODEL AND ITS ENSEMBLE, STILL
PROPOSING A WESTWARD MOTION. NEVERTHELESS, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE MOTION SPEED AND THUS IN THE TIMING PERSIST (AROME AND GFS ARE
SLOWER), PROBABLY IN RELATION WITH THESE OPPOSITE FLOWS. THE PRESENT
FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS BASED ON THE MAIN AVAILABLE MODELS. ON THIS
TRACK, GOMBE COULD REGAIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL TONIGHT AND APPROACH
THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA IN MOZAMBIQUE FROM FRIDAY. A LANDING SEEMS
LIKELY BUT ITS EXACT LOCATION  IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. INDEED, DUE
TO A CHANGE IN THE STEERING FLOW WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
GROWING TO THE EAST, THE TRACK SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND CURVE
SOUTH-EASTWARDS.

IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION: IMPORTANT OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT,
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, NO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPICS IN SPITE OF
THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT. THE LATTER SEEMS TO BE PARTLY COUNTERBALANCED
BY THE MOTION IN THE SAME DIRECTION.  A STEADY OR EVEN A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS THUS EXPECTED AND IT IS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A MATURE PHENOMENON WITHIN A FEW DAYS IN THE
CHANNEL. A LANDFALL AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE IS POSSIBLE

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- FOR MADAGASCAR, THIS SYSTEM REPRESENTS ESSENTIALLY A RAINFALL
THREAT. ALONG THE TRACK, ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150MM LOCALLY MORE
THAN 200MM IN 24H ARE EXPECTED.

- FOR COMOROS AND MAYOTTE, HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
PERIPHERY OF GOMBE TEMPORARILY BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

- BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THIS SYSTEM COULD POSE A SERIOUS THREAT TO
NAMPULA PROVINCE IN MOZAMBIQUE. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY
THE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED TIMING.=

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