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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Depression 9 (gombe) 
Message-ID: <20220309013054.74D8A1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 9 Mar 2022 01:30:54 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 090040
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 46.9 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/09 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 55

24H: 2022/03/10 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/10 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/11 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/11 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 85 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/12 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/13 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/03/14 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

GOMBE HAS EMERGED IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, SHORTLY AFTER 18UTC. AT
THE SAME TIME, ITS CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS BECOME DENSER AND COLDER, WITH
A VERY STRONG ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
LARGE PLUMES OF HIGH CLOUDS, HAS MADE THE LOCALIZATION OF THE LLC
MORE DIFFICULT WITHOUT THE CONTRIBUTION OF EXTERNAL DATAS SUCH AS
MICROWAVE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE SURFACE DATA TRANSMITTED
REGULARLY BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MADAGASCAR, ALLOWED
HOWEVER TO ADJUST AT THE MARGIN THE INITIAL POSITION OF 18UTC. THE
ESTIMATE INTENSITY  IS AROUND A CI OF 2.5 AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (ADT(CIMSS + NOAA)/AIDT) AND THE 00
UTC DVORAK ANALYSIS. GOMBE IS THEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.


GOMBE TRACK IS IMPOSED BOTH BY THE PRESENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR, AND A SECOND, LESS ROBUST LOCATED ON THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL AREA TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE
PRESENCE OF THESE TWO ACTORS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF GENERATING
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS THAT CAN EXPLAIN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
OBSERVED BETWEEN THE MODELS.
INDEED, ALTHOUGH THEY AGREE GLOBALLY FOR A GENERAL DIRECTION TOWARDS
THE WEST TO WEST-SOUTH-WEST, DUE TO THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF SPEED OF MOVEMENT REMAIN
FOR SOME ANALISYS TIMES. IFS AND AROME ARE STILL FASTER THAN GEFS,
MAYBE BECAUSE OF THESE CONTRADICTORY FLOWS OPERATING OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF THEIR DIFFERENCES IN
APPRECIATION OF THE DEEPENING SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL RSMC FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN AVAILABLE MODELS.

ON THIS TRACK, GOMBE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PROGRESSIVELY CLOSER TO THE
EAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE FROM FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DISPERSION OF THE
MODELS IS IMPORTANT AT THESE TIMES, REFLECTING A HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON
THE PREDICTED TRAJECTORY, A LANDING REMAINS HOWEVER PROBABLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA (MOZAMBIQUE). THE PRECISE IMPACT
AREA IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED LATER. AT
THE END OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSIVE SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, GOMBE SHOULD SLOW DOWN ITS COURSE AT
FIRST AND THEN BEND ITS TRAJECTORY SOUTHEASTWARDS, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING IT IN THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE SHOULD BENEFIT OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, OF GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO AN INTENSIFICATION:
IMPORTANT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
SEMI-CERCLE, OFFSET BY A LIGHT EASTERN CONSTRAINT BRINGING A LITTLE
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPO, BUT WHICH SHOULD NOT STOP THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT. A
SUSTAINED TO STRONG INTENSIFICATION IS THUS FORECASTED AND IT IS MORE
AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM BECOMES A MATURE PHENOMENON FROM
THURSDAY / FRIDAY. A LANDING AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS REMAINS LIKELY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- FOR MADAGASCAR, GOMBE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE ORDER OF 50 TO 100MM
MAXIMUM OVER SOFIA AND BOENY PROVINCE. THE IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR
GRADUALLY IN THE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.
- FOR THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO OF  AND MAYOTTE, HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE PERIPHERY OF GOMBE IN AN EPISODIC WAY BETWEEN TODAY
AND TOMORROW THURSDAY.
- BY THE END OF THE WEEK, GOMBE COULD BE A THREAT TO NAMPULA PROVINCE
IN MOZAMBIQUE. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY THE IMPACTS
OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED TIMING.=

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