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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220309115724.5D1971C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 9 Mar 2022 11:57:24 +0000
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814 
AWIO20 FMEE 091107

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/03/09 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warning WTIO24 and WTIO30 0014/9 issued at 06utc on the moderate tropical storm GOMBE.

Next warnings at 12utc.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present over the entire width of the basin and feeds a Monsoon trough (MT) whose axis undulates between 8S and 15S. The convective activity is moderate to strong around the moderate tropical storm GOMBE and on the southern side of the TM.

Moderate tropical storm GOMBE :

Position at 10UTC: 14.9S/45.6E

Displacement : West at 7kt

Maximum winds averaged over 10 minutes : 45kt

Minimum central pressure : 994hPa
For more information on this system, please refer to the WTOI24 and WTOI30 bulletins produced at 12UTC and the following ones

North of the Mascarene Islands:

After the formation of the system GOMBE over the northern Mascarene Islands last weekend, a large area of low pressure is forming again east of Madagascar from the weekend. With the strengthening of the polar trade winds and the persistence of a residual monsoon flow, a weak minimum could again form north of the Mascarenes. Initially, despite a moist air mass and little shear, the convergence of low layers is however insufficient to generate a significant deepening. But at the beginning of next week the environmental conditions are improving. Some runs of the ensemble models start to suggest an intensification from Monday.

There is therefore a low risk of a moderate tropical storm forming early next week over the northern Mascarene Islands.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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